The Derby Picture

Hi there,

I’m not sure that the Derby picture is any clearer now, following the weekend trials at Lingfield and Leopardstown, than it was a week ago.

Those of us of a certain age like to try to find a Sea Bird, Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Shergar or Sea The Stars, but colts of that calibre are very few and far between and for every one of those we have half-a-dozen Kris Kins, Erhaabs or High-Rises.

One measure of the openness of the race is the number of runners Aidan O’Brien fields – a tactic that has served him well in recent years, with Ruler Of The World, Wings of Eagles, Anthony Van Dyck and Serpentine landing substandard renewals – and the signs are that from his 13 current entries he may run three or more.

It would indicate a massive vote of confidence that 2000 Guineas flop City Of Troy can redeem himself if he were to be Ballydoyle’s sole representative, but that seems unlikely following last week’s success of Los Angeles at Leopardstown and Capulet at Chester.

Although the Derby may lack the status in the breeding firmament that was once the case, it still ranks supreme at Coolmore and is the race that they most want to win.

Ryan Moore will stay with City Of Troy, who has apparently done everything that is being asked of him since Newmarket.

Capulet made all to hold the late challenge of the 108-rated Bracken’s Laugh in the Listed Dee Stakes and, from the family of Derby winner Serpentine, he should stay the trip well but last season he was twice beaten at Group 2 level and he is not yet proven in Group 1 company.

Los Angeles, a massive colt, kept his unbeaten record intact in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown on Sunday but confirmed the impression left last season that he is a dour galloper rather than a horse with gears. The son of Camelot should stay the trip but there has to be a question whether such an imposing specimen will handle gradients of the track. He did win the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud, where stable-companion Illinois was a length away in third, in heavy ground last season so any rain would be in his favour.

The one that may well end up being favoured by the pace of the race is Ambiente Friendly, who displayed a sharp turn of foot to pull four and a half lengths clear of Illinois in Saturday’s Lingfield Derby Trial.

It is rare to see a horse at this level who was so keen in the first half mile of the race win so impressively. Trainer James Fanshawe and the Gredley silks may not have the kudos of Godolphin or Coolmore, but to the naked eye there is no escaping that he was the most impressive winner of a trial we have seen this spring and he had a 108-rated colt back in second, winning in a time over two seconds faster than the fillies in the Oaks trial 35 minutes earlier.

Last season ended with a five-and-a-half lengths’ third to Ancient Wisdom in the Autumn Stakes while he may have needed the run when fourth in the Feilden on his return.

Given that the race at Lingfield was just a few yards shy of the Derby trip, and the ease with which he handled the turn for home, it could be unwise to allow yourself to be drawn away from James Fanshawe’s colt by his more fashionable rivals.

I would suggest that were Ambiente Friendly racing in Coolmore or Godolphin colours he would now be the new Derby favourite. The likely strong pace will help him settle and he is the only horse proven over the trip.

Looking back to Chester, the sight of Hidden Law sustaining what turned out to be a fatal injury was difficult to handle. The colt, who would have been promoted to the head of the Derby market had he survived, beat the cannily supported Agenda by three lengths, with Grosvenor Square a further seven and a half lengths away in third. This was a tragic loss.

To close and returning to James Fanshawe, you could be forgiven for thinking All Greek To Me was running out of Sir Mark Prescott’s academy. The handicapper apparently exercised his right to demand a fourth run before allocating a mark, but I’m not sure he would have learnt much more on the evidence of this latest run at Nottingham last Friday.

Beaten just shy of nine lengths, his rider shuffled around like a bird with a broken wing leaving me with the impression the horse had plenty left in the tank. His earlier runs had concealed rather more than they revealed and he hass been given an opening mark of 67. Workable, as they say.

It is most out of character to see a horse from this yard campaigned in such a manner.

Bye for now

Marten