Sample of Marten’s Daily Analysis
December 7th, 2021 | Marten's Current Racing Diary
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Sample of Marten’s Daily Communique
Saturday 30 October 2021
The ground at Down Royal’s important meeting this afternoon is now soft, heavy in places on the hurdle course, which has given rise to a handful of withdrawals.
Impressive Punchestown bumper winner Mighty Potter is 1.4 to make a winning hurdling debut in the 2m 1f maiden (1.40) and Envoi Allen is 1.33 to beat rivals rated about two stone inferior in the extended 2m 3f Grade 2 (3.25).
The feature of Envoi Allen’s style of racing, at its best, is his turn of foot and I expect him to endorse his Gold Cup claims here today.
Minella Indo may find the 3m trip and track too sharp for him in the big one (2.50). Frodon finished almost 34 lengths behind him at Cheltenham but this tight right-handed track will suit him far better than the favourite.
Galvin, who is my outsider for the Gold Cup, likes good ground and is a dour stayer. Delta Work, fifth in the 2020 Gold Cup, is hard to read.
This is a genuine Gold Cup trial and in today’s conditions I favour Frodon to put his superb jumping and tenacity to full effect.
I’m not sure what we can expect from Paisley Park in the Grade 2 at Wetherby (2.30).
The nine-year-old officially dropped 4lb in the ratings, from 167 to 164, following a season that fell a little short of expectations. That said he ran well on his first three starts, including the Stayers’ Hurdle when he stayed on to finish third, but he was obviously not right when pulled up at Aintree.
Today will give connections a guide as to whether to stay hurdling or switch to chasing.
On today’s terms Thomas Darby is just 1lb behind Paisley Park, having shaped well when third over this trip at Aintree in the race in which the favourite pulled up. There are others here in a race which is all about Paisley Park and his future plans.
On a day of great uncertainty we get to see the enigmatic Cyrname in the next (3.05).
The nine-year-old is apparently pleasing Paul Nicholls at home but then trainers are usually upbeat about their horses, especially on their seasonal returns. However the market vibes have not been good, drifting from 2.2 to 3.2, while Shan Blue has come in from 6.4 to 3.7. With Fusil Raffles fit from his pipe-opener at Newton Abbot and the consistent Clondaw Castle this is one best watched.
There is a tip for Jerrysback in the 3m London Gold Cup at Ascot but I will be keeping an eye here on Glen Forsa, having his first run for Charlie Longsdon having been bought from Mick Channon’s yard (3.20). He dropped a stone in the weights last season but may be refreshed by the change of scene and first-time tongue-tie.
There has been market support for German raider Estacas in the closing bumper (5.05).
Sir Michael Stoute’s best middle-distance three-year-old this season is Bay Bridge, who missed the summer having won twice in the spring before returning to win a handicap at York three weeks ago (3.33 Newmarket).
He is a shade of odds-on to win again today but defeat will come as a surprise.
It’s one of the most absorbing days of the autumn and I suggest Frodon and Bay Bridge, both to win.
Bye for now