Ronan Groome’s Weekend Preview

The Saturday Sermon

A lot has been said about the dearth of quality in this year’s renewal of the Betfair Chase but that is surely a glass-half-full attitude. We don’t have a Kauto Star or a Bristol De Mai or an A Plus Tard, but we do have nine runners (the last three renewals have had six, five and four runners) and we do have last year’s winner, the last two King George winners, a couple of multiple Grade 1 winners, Festival winners, interest from both sides of the Irish Sea and a potential bona fide Gold Cup contender in the up-and-coming favourite.

That of course is Grey Dawning, who at a rating of 157 has to find improvement with every runner in the field on officials, but is as short as 13/8 in some places as I write. Still, he jumps for fun – his battle with Ginny’s Destiny in the last renewal of the Turners will live long in the memory – and he has shown his aptitude for Haydock already. I like him, a beautiful grey horse who his trainer rightly pointed out has the potential to gather a following with his bold style, and he’s probably the horse you’d like to see go and win well, from a sporting sense.

But the aim of this online column is to find a bit of value and that’s what we will try and do on a weekend that contains two other Grade 1s, coming to you from this side of the Irish Sea, which means a host of stars are to return, most ominously those who reside in Closutton, Co Carlow. We’ll start with the big one on Saturday.

Saturday

2.30 Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle 3m

Before we get to the big one – this looks like the betting race of the weekend. The Dan Skelton-trained pair Doyen Quest and Catch Him Derry top bookmaker lists and you can see why.

Doyen Quest was a ready winner at Cheltenham and has 5lbs in hand of his current mark on revised terms while stablemate Catch Him Derry bolted up on his prep run for this at Newton Abbot and has loads of scope to improve. But the sirens should be going off for all home trainers here with three Irish horses among declarations, two of them from renowned handicap race trainers in Charles Byrnes (Shoot First) and Emmet Mullins (Backmersackme).

Neither horse’s most recent form would inspire huge confidence, but that’s entirely the point really, and you can fully expect much better efforts now. I like Shoot First most. I was at Galway when he returned off a long absence and it was clear to see what was going on – so much so the stewards called a running-and-riding enquiry. That effort will likely have left him spot on and he could be the best handicapped horse in the race now off 139. Prior to that Galway effort, he was last seen beating the likes of Botox Has and An Tailliur at Cheltenham, and he had been kept all season to target the Pertemps Final, only for an injury to prevent him lining up. Connections’ patience could be paid off now.

Don’t sleep on the other Irish horse either – Jody Ted. He was sent off favourite for the Paddy Power Chase when last seen – fell early in the contest – and is attractively handicapped back over hurdles. It’s interesting he starts his season here, but he has a fine record fresh and connections, fond of landing a touch as well, will unlikely have left him short for a £100,000 race.

3.05 Betfair Chase 3m

Grey Dawning will have his supporters on Saturday, but as you may have guessed, I’m happy to take him on for his seasonal debut, based off current prices.

I went through each runner in detail, and top of my shortlist are Royale Pagaille and Bravemansgame, with slight preference for the former, back here to defend his title. If he does that, he will be the fifth horse since 2006 to win this multiple times which goes a long way to showing just what a unique test this 3m1f contest is. The case is simple here really – Venetia Williams’s horse loves Haydock and he loves soft ground. Four of his five career wins have come at the Lancashire course, which has ground described as good to soft at the moment but is set to take a deluge of rain through Friday night into Saturday morning. He ran just twice last season, winning comprehensively from Bravemansgame (who franked the form with a solid run in the King George after) before falling late on in the Cotswold Chase, just as he was working his way back into contention behind Capodanno, who coincidentally has been supplemented for Willie Mullins and JP McManus here at a cost of £7000. The light schedule will probably be of benefit to this now 10-year-old (he has just five runs over the last two seasons in total) and you can near guarantee Williams will be viewing this race as his ‘Gold Cup’, quite easily their best chance of winning another Grade 1. If you are so inclined, at 4/1, he looks a knocking each-way bet.

Bravemansgame is probably a little overpriced at 12/1 as well. He disappointed in the Charlie Hall, but it was his seasonal debut and his stable was out of form. Paul Nicholls remains the master trainer of this race and he has added blinkers, which is another interesting facet, and I just be surprised if he didn’t jump forward from Wetherby.

Regarding the Irish hopes, Limerick Lace was a big improver last season, winning the Mares’ Chase and while some will wonder about her stamina, she was sent off a relatively short price for the Grand National. Since she was declared a runner by Gavin Cromwell, the fancy prices have gone.

Ryanair fourth Capodanno is an intriguing addition but I’d be slightly worried about him on his seasonal debut, while what can you say about Hewick that hasn’t already been said? Would anyone be surprised if he ran another cracker? I wouldn’t. He looked as good as every when just touched off by Envoi Allen at Down Royal, there is absolutely no shame in that, and will be fit and firing against horses who may have bigger targets ahead. The forecast rain would be a negative however, which isn’t the case for our selection, who could look a class apart again at his favourite hunting ground.

Ascot

2.45 Howden Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m3f

I think the top two in the market here could flip flop by the off, so I make Blueking D’Oroux a bet at 3/1 or thereabouts to defend his title. He has to concede 10lbs to Golden Ace and only rates 6lbs better than her, but I’m not sure Jeremy Scott’s mare can run to 144 first time up. The daughter of Golden Horn was progressive last season, and lowered the colours of a couple of very highly touted Irish mares at the Festival, but that Grade 2 contest was run at a crawl-turned-sprint and in a truer run contest, I doubt she’d have won.

That might be an Irish bias, and I was all over Jade De Grugy I’ll admit, but even now Golden Ace is stepping into a bigger league, and we’ve already seen Brighterdaysahead, the other aforementioned highly touted Irish mare, struggle to look as smart as she did last season when making a similar step up against geldings in open company (more on that below).

Blueking D’Oroux won this last season as a four-year-old, a fair achievement on his first run racing against older horses, and he is surely better equipped for this test 12 months on. Upped in trip for the Long Walk Hurdle on his next start, he raced too keenly and didn’t get home, before taking a mid-season break to return and finish a highly respectable fourth to Impaire Et Passe in the Aintree Hurdle. This intermediate trip looks like his bag for now, so this will have been a key early season target for Paul Nicholls, whose yard form continues to heat up.

Punchestown

1.35 Ryans Cleaning Handicap Chase 2m5f

There are a couple of interesting profiles in here, including a couple in the McManus silks, but I think they could have other targets in mind making their seasonal debut. You can apply that to Ballycoose and Shantreusse, who have reasonable handicap chase form from last season, but both may need this on their seasonal debuts.

I think we need a here-and-now type and we have that in top weight Law Ella, who comes here in the form of her life off the back of finishing second to Donacheady Gale in the Charlie Chute Memorial at Listowel. She came off the pace with a strong staying finish that day, and this track should suit her now (she finished second in a maiden hurdle here). That Listowel effort was only her fifth start over fences, so even with a 3lb rise in the weights, she has scope to improve further. She could be a tough nut to crack.

2.10 Unibet Morgiana Hurdle 2m

It’s refreshing to see this race return somewhat to its most halcyon days with a field of eight declared and an intriguing clash between State Man and two mares, most pointedly his stablemate Lossiemouth, and Brighterdaysahead, who has race fitness now on side.

I’m glad to see Paul Townend keep the faith with Champion Hurdle winner State Man but in turn, surprised at those who are surprised at that very decision. Now, don’t get me wrong, I’ve basically taken on Lossiemouth for her entire career, but I put that notion firmly to one side when she completely dismantled last season’s Mares Hurdle. She looks a real class act and a firm contender for the Champion Hurdle this season, but right here right now, she still has 6lbs to find with her stablemate, who quite simply has been there and done that for two whole seasons. He’s absolutely solid as a rock and will be running close to 169 again here so it’s up to the two mares to get to him.

Brighterdaysahead retains a big reputation so perhaps it’s no surprise to see early positivity for her in the market here but she jumped pretty poorly at Down Royal, and was fairly flat to the mat to account for King Of Kingsfield with the limited Daddy Long Legs back in third. She has a bit more to find here and may end up better over a little further than this.

2.50 Albert Bartlett Triple Crown Series Qualifier Handicap 

This is hugely competitive but Billy Lee Swagger is one handicapper at the lower level that I’ve been really looking forward to seeing again and he jumps off the page for me here.

Philip Rothwell’s gelding was progressive through last season, winning at this course before finishing close seconds at Gowran and Down Royal. He returned to Punchestown for the Full Circle Series Handicap Hurdle over this distance and ran an excellent fourth, coming from the back of the pack to launch his challenge which looked likely to get him much closer to the winner Tune In A Box but for a significant mistake at the second last. He is a five-year-old with just eight starts over hurdles, but really four in earnest, as he looked to be an immature horse the season before last. Most significantly, he should revel racing off a big-field pace here, and with the ground a little softer than it was for the Festival in April, he looks set to run really well.

Selections

Shoot First (2.30 Haydock), Royale Pagaille (3.05 Haydock), Blueking D’Oroux (2.45 Ascot), Law Ella (1.35 Punchestown), Billy Lee Swagger (2.50 Punchestown)