Newcastle Thrive In Open Matches

I think it’s more of the same this weekend, with very short prices about some of the big teams in the Premier League. Perhaps I overwork the argument but this is why bookmakers’ advertisements focus on accumulators. When they miss out by one, punters regard it as a near miss and are cheered by the ‘money back as a free bet’ offer. (This is very dubious wording, in my view, because you never actually SEE the money back and all you’ve done is taken another step down the path they’ve mapped out for you.)

I’d be careful with Manchester City at home to Southampton because Pep Guardiola has to lift the home team after the 4-0 defeat by Barca. Southampton should have taken something from the game at Inter but, as I mentioned a while back, they may not have the strength in depth for a big game every few days. If Fonte and Long are back, they can earn a point here.

Also, I’d beware West Ham at odds-on against Sunderland. True, the Hammers saw it out well at Palace and may have turned a corner but Sunderland will receive a boost from somewhere and they can make things hard for the home team. What Sunderland should do is make it clear that David Moyes is their man for the foreseeable future and he should not feel under any pressure. He will turn them around if allowed to do his own thing.

Swansea v Watford looks a dour affair and I’d be edging towards a low-scoring draw, my only bet in the Premier League with Arsenal too short against Middlesbrough.

There is money to be made over Newcastle this season and I hope you are holding an ante-post voucher their chances of winning the Championship title. They like games like Ipswich at home because the visitors will keep it open and may even score a goal or two themselves. But the Geordies have the fire-power to score a few more and 4/9 is acceptable, just as we had to put up with 4/11 about Norwich last week. In some of these games there is a big gap in class.

There is a mini-revival going on at Loftus Road, where QPR have played much better over the past couple of weeks. With the Hoops, the acid test invariably comes on the road and they take on a Sheffield Wednesday side which has also clicked into gear lately. It’s a game which should tell us plenty and maybe it would be best to view it that way but 4/5 about the home team is tempting.

Swansea v Watford 10 units THE DRAW at 12/5

NEWCASTLE 30 units at 4/9 to beat Ipswich

SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY 20 units at 4/5 to beat Queens Park Rangers