Marten Julian’s Weekly Roundup 14 October 2024

At first sight Saturday’s Dewhurst Stakes looked nothing special, with the first three finishing within two necks of each other and the ante-post favourite The Lion In Winter an absentee.

The most intriguing performance came from Aidan O’Brien’s Expanded, who just seven days earlier had squeezed through a narrow gap to win a 7f maiden at the Curragh by a neck.

I was not alone in expressing surprise at O’Brien bringing the son of Wootton Bassett out again just a week later to take part in the season’s most prestigious two-year-old race.

He had done something similar with Serpentine, who won the Derby just a week after winning a maiden race at the Curragh. However in that particular case he was dealing with a three-year-old who had run twice before his maiden success, whereas Expanded was winning on his debut.

It was generally assumed that The Lion In Winter, who was withdrawn due to a bruised foot, is rated superior to Expanded and so would have won the race had he taken part but that should not detract from the merit of Shadow Of Light’s victory.

I had suggested beforehand that Charlie Appleby’s colt had the superior turn of foot and could have too many gears for The Lion In Winter, but in the event we saw tenacity rather than acceleration from the winner, probably on account of the ease in the ground.

Having said that, the winner did quicken, well inside the final furlong having had to make his way over from the far side of the track.

It is never satisfactory when they split into two or three groups on the Rowley Mile, but it has happened on a number of occasions in the two Guineas races. The surprise here was that it happened with just the five runners.

Ryan Moore said afterwards that he felt Expanded would have won had James Doyle not taken him on early. His mount certainly rallied bravely inside the final furlong to regain the advantage over Ancient Truth and was closing on the winner at the line.

The Dewhurst raised rather more questions than answers. How would The Lion In Winter have slotted into the picture? Where does Expanded stand in the pecking order at Ballydoyle? Will the winner stay a mile?

With regard to the final question, his pedigree suggests that he should. Andre Fabre never ran his three-parts brother Earthlight beyond seven furlongs, but he was by Shamardal while Shadow Of Light is by Lope De Vega, who won the Prix du Jockey Club over an extended mile and two furlongs. His other winning half-sister Snowfinch won over a mile.

He also settles well in his races and, as I said, he has a very good turn of foot – something that we did not see to its optimum effect on Saturday due, I believe, to the ground and the way he had to race.

Although he won the Middle Park on soft ground, in my view the winner will be seen to far greater effect on quicker going. As to the longer term, he is not very big and he may not take much getting ready so connections will run him in the Guineas with the option of dropping back in trip if he doesn’t get home.

As for the ante-post picture, we need to be mindful that Aidan O’Brien does not seem to be in much of a rush these days to have his horses ready for the spring. The 10/1 seems about right for the winner but the question of his stamina will temper support from certain quarters.

Just to conclude, it would not surprise me if Expanded and Ancient Truth had been tried over a mile and a half by this time next year. The former is by Wootton Bassett out of a Galileo mare while the latter is by Dubawi out of a mare by Australia.

Whereas the 2000 Guineas still has a fairly open look to it, the 1000 Guineas is dominated by Desert Flower and Lake Victoria. The former soared clear of her rivals in Friday’s Fillies’ Mile just as Lake Victoria had done in the Cheveley Park.

The difference is, of course, that Desert Flower is now proven over the mile but Lake Victoria has plenty of stamina in her pedigree and the trip should not pose a problem.

They each have a turn of foot and could present quite a spectacle if they are both on song next May.

Bye for now

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