Marten Julian’s Weekly Roundup 4 August 2025

One of the most profitable sources of winners is to identify what I call a ‘golden thread’ of form before it becomes generally recognised.

Going back many years, I remember Green Desert being beaten by Sure Blade on his debut at Newmarket. Michael Stoute had left me in no doubt when I asked him about Green Desert a couple of weeks earlier that he rated the colt highly, so when Sure Blade beat him I knew the winner had to be useful and he duly won the Coventry Stakes next time out.

This season I identified a golden thread of form in a novice stakes for three-year-olds and upwards at an evening meeting at Carlisle in May.

The race was won by The King’s Falcon, from Push The Limit, Danger Bay and Tiernan in fourth.

The winner had run second to Push The Limit in a Kempton novice contest last October and made an encouraging seasonal return when finishing a neck second to Jackknife, now rated on 105, at Epsom.

Push The Limit had returned this season with a neck second to Spanish Voice, trying to concede 7lbs, at Newmarket while Danger Bay, beaten six lengths in third, had run second to Hawksbill, subsequently fourth in a Listed race and now rated on 93.

These solid form lines suggested that Tiernan, three-quarters of a length behind Danger Bay in fourth under a considerate ride, was of interest. An ex-Godolphin cast-off with an attractive staying pedigree, by Dubawi out of a Manduro mare, he put up an excellent effort over this inadequate nine furlongs.

Next time out he ran a similar race over the same trip at Hamilton, finishing four lengths fourth to the aforementioned Danger Bay, before exposing his potential with dramatic effect in a 1m 3f Listed race back at Hamilton, where he stayed on strongly to finish three-quarters of a length third to Nahraan and Arabian Force, rated on 95 and 99 respectively.

Inevitably the handicapper had his say, allocating him a mark of 101.

With The King’s Falcon raised to 90, Push The Limit, who was conceding 10lbs to The King’s Falcon at Carlisle, had probably run to a figure in the low 100s.

Ralph Beckett’s son of Le Havre was therefore of great interest off 91, having been dropped 1lb from Carlisle, stepped up to 1m 3f for last Friday’s 0-90 at Goodwood. On my lines of form he went into the race with about 10lbs in hand and he was duly supported accordingly, from around 7/1 in the early betting to 5/2.

We are still waiting to see The King’s Falcon back in action, but he looks very well treated off 90. Life may be tougher for Tiernan on 101, although I have no doubt that mark is an accurate reflection of his talent.

There was a time when Luca Cumani used to send his handicap projects up to Carlisle in order to acquire favourable marks … I recall at least two of his Extel Handicap winners following that route … and this novice contest in May was the best race of its kind that I’ve seen there for many years.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Push The Limit, The King’s Falcon and Tiernan all won in Pattern company, while collateral form lines to other horses may bear fruit.

I’ll be back next week with some more insights.

Bye for now

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