Marten Julian’s Weekly Roundup 30 September 2024

I was very selective with my advices for Newmarket last week, nominating just four horses over the three days.

The one that I was most keen on was Lake Victoria, who was dropping down in trip to six furlongs for the Cheveley Park Stakes having won three times over seven.

Aidan O’Brien is no slave to convention and he had this race in mind for Lake Victoria before she won the Moyglare. I had been impressed with the turn of foot she had displayed when holding the late challenge of Red Letter on her debut at the Curragh in June, and there was much to like about the battling qualities she subsequently displayed in the Sweet Solera Stakes and then the Moyglare.

The money came in for her on Saturday, having been freely available at 5/2 in the early betting and backed down near the off to 6/4.

She won in a time of 1m 11.94secs, which was 0.35secs quicker than Shadow Of Light 35 minutes later in the Middle Park.

Lake Victoria produced an impressive turn of foot to surge three lengths clear of French challenger Daylight, with the previously unbeaten Babouche back in fourth. Babouche had pulled hard in the early stages of the race and that can be a sign in the autumn of a horse being over the top.

Lake Victoria was having her fourth run on Saturday and she may appear again, with Ryan Moore suggesting the Fillies’ Mile and the Breeders’ Cup also a consideration.

Over the years O’Brien has not been afraid to campaign his top-class fillies aggressively so, if she shows that she is still well at home, I would expect to see her out again.

As for next year she should stay a mile and is priced between 9/4 and 7/2 for the 1000 Guineas, with stable-companion Fairy Godmother next at 8/1 and Desert Flower at 10s. At this stage Lake Victoria is the right favourite but a lot can happen between now and the spring and I would not be rushing in.

In the Royal Lodge Stakes I was very keen on the winner Wimbledon Hawkeye but had concerns about the ground which, in the end, was nothing like as soft as expected.

The son of Kameko had the best form in the field and it was a surprise to see his price drift out to 4/1. He may reappear in the Futurity Trophy and he appeals as the type of colt who could represent each-way value in next year’s Guineas. I would not be sure of him staying the Derby trip.

I had been keen in the week on Dash Dizzy, who was available at the time at 66/1, for the Middle Park Stakes. There was a point entering the dip when I thought he might be hard to catch, but he dropped back in the final furlong despite keeping on gamely for third.

He is a half-brother to five winners including Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner Sioux Nation. His pedigree is all speed and he has the physique to develop into a top sprinter next season.

Bye for now

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