Marten Julian’s Weekly Roundup 3 June 2024

Hi there

I sensed a collective sigh of relief from the majority of pundits following the success of City Of Troy in the Derby last weekend.

In the old days I would have said this was due to the landing of long-term ante-post bets, but that market is no longer as active as it once was and City Of Troy was a much better price in the aftermath of the 2000 Guineas than he had been through the winter.

The other reason may be because Aidan O’Brien is guaranteed to provide plenty of interesting copy in his post-race interviews, and that was indeed the case on Saturday.

Looking at the race once everything had calmed down, I’m not sure that City Of Troy’s success warranted the accolades that followed from some observers.

Aidan O’Brien is uniquely qualified to say beforehand that they had never sent a colt with so much talent to Epsom because he has trained nine previous winners of the race and has empirical scientific data to call upon.

However whether future form will endorse that view time alone will tell.

To the eye he was not as impressive as Galileo, who beat 2000 Guineas winner Golan by three and a half lengths. The 2002 winner High Chaparral had only two lengths to spare over Hawk Wing but it was 12 lengths back to the third. Camelot won by five lengths in 2012 and in 2020 Serpentine ran away with the race to win by five and a half lengths.

The market suggests that City Of Troy had the ‘right’ horses following him home, but he went into the race rated 13lbs superior to the 111-rated Ambiente Friendly, who got to within two and three-quarter lengths with Los Angeles, also rated on 111, a further three and a quarter lengths back in third.

He did not have a 2000 Guineas winner behind him or come away as impressively as the likes of Shergar, Troy, Slip Anchor or the oft-forgotten Workforce.

But to his great credit he overcame obvious signs of greenness to work his way through the field and strike the front two furlongs out, lugging right when he was clear, to win in a time almost two seconds quicker than the following handicap over the same trip.

In his defence City Of Troy could only beat what was lined up against him, and this was the first time that he had come through horses at a competitive level. The debate over his physique and whether he had trained on has probably been resolved, but from what we saw on Saturday he has the potential to improve mentally.

As to the future, given the team’s investment in his sire Justify they may be keen to demonstrate the colt’s prowess on a US dirt surface – there has been talk of the Travers Stakes over 10f at Saratoga in August – while we know how fond the Coolmore team is of the Irish Champion Stakes.

Later there is the option of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and, notably, the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

One other point – I wrote last season that City Of Troy was very much a galloper who lengthens rather than a horse who travels and has a change of gear. Once he finds full stride he is hard to pull up, as we saw on Saturday, but this has been the case with many Ballydoyle stars of the past. They are trained to be tough.

Aidan O’Brien said a few weeks ago that he is pacing his team more than in the past, to try and enable them to last through to the prestigious autumn programme. This may be why quite a few of his early runners appeared to need the race, and this could in part be one of the reasons City Of Troy blew out at Newmarket.

To conclude, City Of Troy won in good style on Saturday but he has some extremely challenging targets to hit if history is to show him to the best of the trainer’s 10 Derby winners.

Elsewhere we mustn’t lose sight of events at Chantilly on Sunday, where Look De Vega retained his unbeaten record in the Prix du Jockey Club. Now he definitely displayed a turn of foot, while Sunway can be marked up after a troubled run having missed the break. I have plenty of time for his trainer David Menuisier.

Later on the card Aventure also quickened to pull seven lengths clear of Vigatata in the 12f Group 3 Prix de Royaumont. The daughter of Sea The Stars loved this heavy ground and could be interesting at 16/1 in receipt of the fillies’ allowance in the Arc. I would prefer her at the price to Look De Vega, who is 6/1.

Bye for now

Marten

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