Marten Julian’s Weekly Roundup 12 May 2025

Following a relatively slow start to the campaign, probably by design, Aidan O’Brien now has a firm grip on the middle-distance Classic picture having won most of the recognised trials.

Taking a look at the Derby betting, and this is before the Dante Stakes on Thursday, he trains five of the first seven in the market, the two exceptions being 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court and Alpine Trail, who is not in the race and will need to be supplemented.

There are others which may come into the reckoning … Stanhope Gardens, Green Impact and Luther … but as things stand Ruling Court looks the biggest threat to the Ballydoyle contingent.

As I say the Dante could, indeed is very likely, to lead to some significant adjustments to the market but of the recent trial winners, Delacroix has a fairly solid look.

Although beaten a nose by Hotazhell as a two-year-old in his only Group 1 race, he has won two Group 3s over a mile and a quarter this season, notably beating subsequent trial winners Lambourn and Puppet Master in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown in March.

On that occasion he powered away inside the final furlong, and he looked even more convincing over the same course and distance last week, probably against lesser opposition, when he appeared to display a hitherto unseen turn of foot to beat Dermot Weld’s promising Purview by two and three-quarter lengths.

Taking a look at the colt’s pedigree, there is every chance that he could prove even better when stepped up in trip, as his half-brother by Galileo won the Group 1 Prix de Royallieu over 1m 6f in the Longchamp mud.

His riders and trainer are quoted as saying the colt has been ‘babyish’ but has shown improvement in his home work and is progressing all the time.

At a top price of 9/2 – more generally 4/1 – his price is unlikely to contract unless The Lion In Winter blows out on Thursday. O’Brien only tends to run more than one in the Derby if he lacks a strong contender, or if he thinks the race has an open look to it, so if The Lion In Winter impresses on Thursday Delacroix may not run.

Unusually, last season’s Acomb Stakes has become the leading guide to this year’s Classic form.

The Lion In Winter, a son of Sea The Stars, was handy throughout and kept on strongly to beat the consistent Wimbledon Hawkeye by one and three-quarter lengths, with subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Ruling Court a further half-length away in third.

On that occasion he stayed on strongly, off a prominent ride, but the time before on his debut in a 7f maiden at the Curragh he produced a change of gear to come with a winning surge from off the pace.

It won’t go unnoticed by the pundits on Thursday that he tends to carry his head to one side, a little high in fact, but he doesn’t seem to have any wayward tendencies.

He has a rock-solid middle-distance pedigree, out of a Lope De Vega mare who won twice at around a mile and a half and was third in a Group 3 over that distance.

Ruling Court is less certain to appreciate the Derby trip, coming from a bottom line comprising of milers.

Mount Kilimanjaro should stay while Lambourn is proven over the distance having won the Chester Vase over an extended mile and a half. Puppet Master won the Lingfield trial on Saturday over the extended 1m 3f, beating his tenderly handled stable-companion Stay True.

The one that could creep up on us is Stanhope Gardens, who ran Delacroix to a neck at Newmarket last autumn.

His trainer Ralph Beckett has a formidable string this season but they have been slow to come to hand. Once they do I expect a torrent of winners, with this colt expected to be at the forefront of the action. I am not aware, though, of his planned return.

Bye for now

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