Marten Julian’s Weekly Roundup 7 September 2026

The focus of the racing media’s attention over the weekend was, inevitably, the performance of Constitution Hill in the Group 3 September Stakes at Kempton.

Beforehand, I readily admit that I didn’t have great clarity of vision on the outcome.

I did what I always do, which is play the race in my mind, factoring in the likely pace of the race, the wellbeing of the individual players and every other piece of data available to me.

My starting point is always the BHA rating for each horse and this clearly showed that Constitution Hill faced a stiff task, rated on 101 and meeting four rivals rated on 111, 113, 114 and 117.

His rating of 101 was on the high side based on his defeat of Classical Allusion here in March. That horse was rated on 85 after the race, but four subsequent defeats have seen him drop to just 79.

A strict line of form would have put Constitution Hill on a mark in the low 90s, subject to a retrospective drop following the runner-up’s four defeats in handicaps from marks of 85 twice, 83 and 82.

By contrast, the form of his novice stakes success at Southwell in February has worked out very well.

The runner-up Square Necker, beaten by nine and a half lengths, won his next two handicaps off 85 and 91 and he wasn’t disgraced last time out off 97 when finishing in mid-division in the Ebor.

Gambino, rated 83 at Southwell and beaten 10 and three-quarter lengths and conceding 7lbs, adds further ballast to the form.

Taking those collateral form lines into account, I would put Constitution Hill running to a mark in the low 90s, working to the acknowledged 1lb a length over one and a half miles.

In allocating him a mark of 101, in my view the assessor has factored in around 8/9lbs for the horse’s scope for improvement or ease of success. In the case of the latter point, Constitution Hill didn’t appear to have much in hand at Kempton, so having said all that, my belief is that a rating of 101 flattered him.

On Saturday, taking various lines, he ran to a mark through the first and third of 108, assuming the 117-rated runner-up Gethin underperformed.

I don’t know if Nicky Henderson employs a private handicapper, but given his post-race suggestion that the horse might be dropped a couple of pounds, he could do with one.

Constitution Hill should be raised to 108, but I suspect it will more likely be 105/106. He will most definitely not be dropped.

If you take on board my earlier point that his two earlier runs warranted a mark in the low 90s, then the improvement he displayed on Saturday amounted to about a stone.

As for the other factors to bear in mind, as Declan Murphy told me many years ago while extolling the virtues of Deep Sensation, Constitution Hill does what every classy horse does – he travels through a race.

This was the case over hurdles and it’s been the same in his three runs on the Flat. Quite what happened two furlongs from home remains open to conjecture.

In the view of his rider Billy Loughnane he may have ‘needed it’ – something a rider is traditionally reluctant to suggest in case it reflects adversely on the trainer.

In this instance Nicky Henderson conceded that it could be the case, given that he is a big gross horse and that he had not raced since March 25th.

Second, the horse has had wind surgery so perhaps, as it can do, that affected him when he was asked to quicken.

Third, he has broken blood vessels in the past and traces of blood were seen to emerge from his nostril afterwards. However, any vet will tell you that every horse shows traces of blood in its lungs after exercise and I don’t believe this would have played a part.

Of more concern to me would be the horse’s past experience of pain, notably his attack of colic in late March of 2024.

The recollection of pain, and fear of its return, can prey on the mind of every living thing and a top trainer once told me that, in his view, a horse which has suffered an attack of colic is seldom as good upon their return.

So, where does this leave us?

Of course, the owner and trainer may decide to delve into the European programme book for Pattern races, but the breeding sheds are not a concern so a programme built around lucrative middle-distance handicaps may be the preferred route.

Constitution Hill will be 10 next year and although lightly-raced, there have been reasons for that.

Having been built up, by the media rather more than the followers of the sport, to a status that I’m not convinced is fully justified, it would be tragic to see him come to any harm.

I would suggest that Constitution Hill is now a 107/108 performer capable of winning a valuable middle-distance handicap at a distance ranging from 10 to 14 furlongs. From that mark he could go close in an Ebor but the ground would need to be right and that’s a long way ahead.

However, if I owned him I would take his past ailments into account and give him the chance to spend whatever days are left to him in the paddocks.

The tragic loss of Galopin Des Champs was a stark reminder that nobody knows what fate has in store.

Moving on, it’s a truly phenomenal weekend ahead, with the St Leger meeting at Doncaster starting on Thursday and no fewer than 10 Group races taking place in Ireland. Jodie Standing and I will be sharing all our news in this weekend’s Weekend Bulletin.

Bye for now

Why wait a week? Our subscribers received this edition, written on 7 September, direct to their inbox.

Receive Marten’s free horse racing publication Weekly Roundup, the day it is written in full for free every Monday evening by clicking here & signing up for our free Newsletter.

© Copyright in all Marten Julian Publications is strictly reserved by the publishers. No material therein may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without written permission from Marten Julian.