Marten Julian’s Weekly Roundup 6 January 2025

We had a feast of top-class racing over the Christmas holiday, giving rise to some notable fluctuations in the ante-post markets for Cheltenham.

Unlike this time last year, when about half the races had a Willie Mullins horse at the head of the market, there is a more open look to this season’s meeting. Things may change, of course, with the Dublin Racing Festival likely to have a major bearing on the Irish challenge, but there are a couple of interesting opportunities that may be worth consideration.

Lossiemouth is currently available at 5/1, from 7/1 a couple of days ago, and 7/2 NRNB with William Hill, for the Champion Hurdle.

In my view the six-year-old would have gone close in last year’s race had that been the chosen option – instead she won the 2m 4f Mares’ Hurdle – but this season connections have stated on more than one occasion the Champion Hurdle is her main objective.

Lossiemouth can be forgiven her run, if there is anything to forgive, in the Christmas Hurdle. For a mare who won over 2m 4f in heavy ground at Cheltenham, and subsequently won two Grade 1 races over the same trip at Punchestown and Fairyhouse, the two miles around the flat track on good ground at Kempton was always likely to prove a challenge.

Furthermore, Mullins had been trying to get her to settle at home and it was evident from the first hurdle, which she ballooned, that this was probably not going to be her day. In the end she stayed on creditably to finish two-and-a-half lengths behind Constitution Hill, never nearer than at the line.

It is, of course, the same trip at Cheltenham but the stiffer track and undulations suit her better and the ground may be softer. She can produce a change of gear on her day and I will be very surprised if they don’t opt for the big one. We will probably see her before then at the Dublin Racing Festival.

By the way I would not totally discount Burdett Road from the Champion Hurdle picture.

Some have said the proximity of the 142-rated four-year-old in third, nine lengths behind the winner, devalues the form. Yet the useful 144-rated Lump Sum was 23 lengths behind him in fourth, and in my view Burdett Road can be marked up, especially given his mistake at the last. He was an easy winner of a Listed contest on the flat in the autumn ending the campaign on a mark of 109.

His hurdle rating has been increased to 150.

The other notable horse of interest is Il Est Francais, although he has three options at the festival. I hope, though, that his connections go for the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Unlike Lossiemouth, Il Est Francais loves Kempton which suits his slick jumping. The tracks in France are very flat, like Kempton, so we don’t know how he will adjust to the undulations of Cheltenham, but he has speed to burn and he has won six times over trips short of 2m 4f.

Jonbon’s only three defeats have been at Cheltenham and at 16/1 – 6/1 NRNB with William Hill – Il Est Francais is quite attractively priced, especially for in-running traders, as he could win the battle for the lead and soon build up a healthy advantage.

Those who placed their trust in Nicky Henderson’s pre-race reports of Sir Gino’s prowess could have got 5/1 about him before Kempton, while there was briefly the same price on offer for Galopin Des Champs after his defeat in the John Durkan.

Perhaps, after a dormant couple of years, interest may be returning in the ante-post markets.

Bye for now

Why wait a week? Receive Marten’s Weekly Roundup the day it is written in full for free every Monday evening by clicking here & signing up for our free Newsletter

© Copyright in all Marten Julian Publications is strictly reserved by the publishers. No material therein may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without written permission from Marten Julian.