Marten Julian’s Weekly Roundup 2 December 2024

Although the ante-post market is not the force of old, there is plenty of material for discussion regarding the current Champion Hurdle betting.

The first quandary relates to the participation of Constitution Hill. The seven-year-old seems to be quite fragile and susceptible to ailments and injuries, and his current odds of 9/2 are more a reflection on his possible absence than his ability.

Then we have the issue with State Man and Sir Gino, who are both owned by Joe and Marie Donnelly. Of the two State Man would be the more likely participant, with Nicky Henderson still keen to extol the quality of Sir Gino’s schooling over fences at home despite his success in the Fighting Fifth.

State Man’s stable-companion Lossiemouth impressed in the Hatton’s Grace on Saturday but the slow pace played into her hands and she was receiving the 7lbs mares’ allowance from Teahupoo.

It seems churlish to suggest that the winner of 10 Grade 1 races is the weakest of the four contenders, but State Man’s defeat of the 159-rated Irish Point in last season’s Champion Hurdle and again at Punchestown in May, would not be in the same class as the form shown by Constitution Hill or the potential of Sir Gino and Lossiemouth.

State Man was beaten by Brighterdaysahead on his return in November and he was nine lengths behind Constitution Hill in the 2023 Champion Hurdle.

All this apart, I am not sure there is any value in the current market.

Constitution Hill will not start at 9/2 if he gets there on the day and he wouldn’t be the first horse trained by Nicky Henderson to win the race after an interrupted preparation. There had been uncertainty about See You Then, Binocular, Buveur d’Air and Epatante at some point in the seasons they won but he managed to get them right on the day.

My selection for the Coral Gold Cup was Victtorino, who came home with a late rattle to finish third. He was in front a few yards after the line having been in arrears for much of the race. His jumping lacked fluency, hesitant at many of the fences, but looking back at his previous races this was not out of character.

He really should know better, having run in 10 chases as a 4yr old in France, but he will still be popular when he returns to Ascot for the 3m handicap chase over Christmas that he won last year.

Looking ahead to this weekend, Jonbon is 2/5 to win the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown. He is undefeated in four starts at the track and Boothill and Edwardstone, who finished second and third to him in the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham, may take him on again.

JPR One, who landed the Haldon Gold Cup in good style last month, could represent each-way value at 12/1 if you can get three places. The seven-year-old is rated 16lbs below the favourite but he was not disgraced when running well to the home turn in last season’s Arkle Trophy and he travels smoothly through a race.

With the Becher Chase at Aintree we can look forward to another tremendous weekend.

As many of you know, I have reduced my workload in recent years due to Parkinson’s, but I still enjoy and want to continue to offer my daily analysis services and The Weekend Card. However, I need support due to the volume of racing and work involved in tracking entries. I want to share the good news that after many months we have found someone to assist me in my search for winners and previewing the big-race action in this week’s Weekend Card. He started this week and is also working with Rebecca on the development of our new service, which will launch later this season.

Bye for now

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