Marten Julian’s Weekly Roundup 18 May 2026

Ante-post betting has always been a high-risk business, but it has become even more speculative since the domination of Willie Mullins over the jumps and Aidan O’Brien on the flat.

This is because, in both cases, they usually have more than one possible representative in the top races and can therefore afford to leave their final decision until declaration time.

The NRNB terms offered by most of the leading firms in the weeks leading up to Cheltenham are a welcome concession, but they are not widely available for the top races on the flat.

Consequently, such uncertainty must restrict market interest and that applies to this year’s Derby in the case of Constitution River who, from what I have gleaned, impressed some sound judges when winning the Dee Stakes more than his stable-companion Benvenuto Cellini, who won the Chester Vase.

If Aidan O’Brien were to confirm that Constitution River was an intended runner at Epsom, it would not surprise me if he were to shoot to the head of the market. That could, of course, change if Ryan Moore elected to ride the other one.

However the various information highways indicate that he is going to tackle the Prix du Jockey Club, apparently due to slight concerns about his stamina over the Derby trip, rather than his ability.

Consequently he is a weakening 6/1 chance – 7.4 on Betfair – for Epsom but he has been strongly supported in recent days at the same price for the Coral-Eclipse.

The one to watch closely at Ballydoyle is Causeway.

The winner of a 7f maiden at the Curragh on his second start last season, he battled bravely to land the Madrid Handicap by a head from a mark of 94 before revealing a hitherto unseen turn of foot, wearing cheekpieces for the first time, to beat rivals rated 103, 107 and 106 in second, third and fourth, at level weights in the 1m Listed Tetrarch Stakes at the Curragh.

That performance saw his mark rise by 8lbs, from 99 to 107, within a few pounds of the two Chester winners, but there are sound reasons for believing that he could progress up to their level, notably when he is stepped up in trip.

The first is his pedigree. By the late Wootton Bassett, whose progeny stay further than he did, he is the second foal and his full sister Island Hopping finished third in the Irish Oaks.

The second is his rate of progress … an official improvement from 94 to 107 … and the third is his tenacity. He looks very tough.

If he were to win the Irish 2,000 Guineas, which I assume is the target, then he has options over a mile, 10f and a mile and a half in the St James’s Palace Stakes, the Coral-Eclipse and the Derby (both Epsom and the Curragh).

He is priced at the moment at 50/1 for the St James’s Palace, 100/1 for the Coral-Eclipse and 66/1 for Epsom. At those odds I would not discourage you from a little dabble.

Regarding the fillies, Precise is of great interest.

Undercooked for the 1000 Guineas after a setback in her training programme, she is apparently on track for the Irish 1,000 Guineas, where she may join Newmarket heroine True Love.

She was stunningly impressive in her two Group 1s last autumn and the current 16/1 for the Oaks catches the eye. She does, though, have other options and there is just a fortnight between the two races.

Bye for now

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