Marten Julian’s Weekly Roundup 17 August 2026

I have visited this subject before, but once again I find myself asking who the backers are behind some of the market moves that we have witnessed these last few weeks.

The most extreme example this weekend was the plunge on Wine Dark Sea in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury.

Available at 16/1 when the betting opened after the declarations were known on Thursday, he was steady at around 6/1 until he shortened dramatically down to 7/2 in the minutes before flagfall.

It was hard to understand the motive for the market strength.

The four-year-old was rated 100, the lowest BHA rating in the field —  18lbs behind Dubai Honour and 12lbs behind Table Talk —  and he had been beaten on his latest start by three and a quarter lengths at odds of 5/6 in a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket.

On his previous run just over two weeks earlier he had won the Cumberland Plate at Carlisle by 13 lengths from a mark of 83.

On Saturday he made all the running and responded well to pressure to beat Tabletalk by a length and a half, with Dubai Honour a neck away in third.

The winner’s trainer Harry Charlton referred to the market strength afterwards, saying:
“I don’t think market moves are like they were ten years ago when they really could reflect stable confidence. There are now data systems, AI and bots at play. I can’t explain his price, but I do think a lot of pro punters clock when a race is going to be set up for a horse who might get an easy lead.”

The trainer is probably up to speed with his thinking, but questions remain as to who has access to this technology and where they are getting their money on.

For example, were there people backing the horse in the betting ring at Newbury or was the market driven by punters, with access to the technology, operating from home on Betfair?

I have no doubt that those employed to monitor accounts on the exchanges and internet betting sites will know who they are, but the point that Harry makes about the relevance of informed stable confidence is a very valid one.

I belong to the old school which believes that a strong market move reflects informed support, probably from connections, and indeed this may still often be the case.

An adverse market move can be just as significant.

Scoville was the subject of positive interest for the 7f 0-105 handicap at Newbury from a handful of respected pundits earlier in the week and he was duly very steady in the overnight and morning markets at around 6/4.

The assumption beforehand was that he was going to adopt his customary front-running role and that he would have more chance of lasting home over this trip than the mile of his two previous starts.

However, in the minutes before the off, he drifted alarmingly out to 11/4, settling at 5/2, and then, contrary to expectations, he was held up before making late headway to finish third.

Now I’m not suggesting that anything untoward took place, but was the late drift driven by those who knew that the plan was to hold the horse up and took the view that such tactics might not suit him?

Again, those who oversee the exchange accounts will know who the prime movers and shakers are.

Moving on, you don’t need me to tell you that it’s one of the highlights of the summer at York this week.

I’ll be back next week with more reflections.

Bye for now

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