Marten Julian’s Weekly Roundup 15 April 2025

I have to start with a word of praise for the ride Harry Cobden gave Captain Cody to win the Scottish Grand National on Saturday.

This could all have gone horribly wrong for him. Riding the horse for the first time, he jumped the last three lengths behind stable-companion Klarc Kent and his mount then found a hitherto unseen change of gear under hands and heels to take the lead about six strides from the line.

The son of Arctic Cosmos was a four-race maiden over fences coming into this contest and had not shown this turn of foot before, not even when winning twice over hurdles. He had, though, benefitted from the sympathetic handling of Jody Townend and having spoken to the team Cobden would have been aware of his mount’s particular requirements.

Had Captain Cody not got up the ride would, with some justification, have been considered ill-judged and it speaks volumes for Cobden’s self-belief that he got up to win on a horse with which he was unfamiliar.

The other race on Saturday that I want to discuss is the Greenham Stakes at Newbury.

This went to Jonquil, having his first run for Andrew Balding having been trained last season by Sir Michael Stoute.

The son of Lope De Vega had displayed great tenacity when overcoming crowding and interference to win a 7f maiden at Sandown last August by a short-head from Centigrade, about whom more in a moment.

That gritty effort was followed a fortnight later by a disappointing run in a 7f Listed race at Doncaster where, after being slowly out of the gate, he dropped away tamely two furlongs out to finish nine and three-quarter lengths behind the winner. The suggestion from connections subsequently is that the race came too soon after his exertions at Sandown.

Jonquil had been working well for his in-form yard this spring and both Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy were confident that he would go close on Saturday. Smartly away on the nearside group, he tracked Rashabar until taking the lead entering the final furlong to beat that good yardstick by a length and a half.

The runner-up had won the Coventry Stakes last season and run second in two Group 1s and a Group 3, qualifying for a mark of 113. Jonquil was rated 21lbs inferior, on 92, so the winner has run to a mark of about 116/117 assuming the second ran to his best.

With rivals rated 99, 101 and 110 beaten into 5th, 6th and 8th there are sound reasons for trusting this form and assessing the winner on the line through Rashabar.

The other point to make relates to Jonquil’s pedigree. Out of a daughter of Dubawi, albeit a speedy one, the colt is bred to appreciate the step up to a mile and, possibly, beyond.

With the characteristic uncertainty regarding the likely Ballydoyle representation in the Guineas, and the same owner’s Cosmic Year requiring good ground or easier, the 20/1 in a place for Jonquil is not without appeal. The 14s generally available is probably more realistic but obviously less attractive.

I’m not aware of the plans Ralph Beckett has for Centigrade, but his form from last season was franked on Saturday by both Jonquil and Furthur, who was beaten five and a half lengths by him at Newbury last October.

The son of Too Darn Hot is in the 2000 Guineas, Derby and Irish Derby, and he is one to keep a close eye on.

Finally I would like to recommend that you take a look at the Racing Post’s Stable Tour with David O’Meara. Generally I find these seasonal previews comprised of platitudes, with hardly an adverse comment to be found, but this was refreshingly incisive, with a frank appraisal of every horse and, where called for, their limitations.

Bye for now

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