Marten Julian’s Weekly Roundup 10 March 2025

Well it’s almost upon us … the highlight of the season. By the end of this week we’ll know which of the good things got beat and whether Constitution Hill and Galopin Des Champs belong in the stellar galaxy of the sport’s great performers.

At a top price of 8/13 the bookmakers believe that Constitution Hill has a 61.5% chance of winning and at a top price of 1/2, they reckon Galopin Des Champs has a 66% chance of winning.

Put like that, do we believe that Constitution Hill would beat his field 61 times in 100 runnings, and Galopin Des Champs beat his field 66 times in a 100 runnings?

I reckon that if you asked those who believe the two horses are ‘stellar’ class how many times either horse would win in 100 runnings they would suggest an average of 80, which represents odds of 4/1 on.

If that is the case, then the current prices of 8/13 and 1/2 represent value, but that is not how most of us think.

Most backers, including pundits, consider value to be 5/1 each-way against an odds-on chance in an eight-horse field, but that is only logical if you think the favourite is beatable, otherwise you are betting to get your money back at best.

I am not strong in this area, but I will be adopting the probability test when assessing the chances of the short ones in the next few days.

Talking of pundits, I have tried to watch as many previews as I can.

Some have been very disappointing, with a handful of the participants more interested in self-promotion than the sharing of knowledge. A few others have left the impression they are holding back … this applies particularly to ex-jockeys, notably those who are linked to yards or owners. But a couple have offered valuable insights and I single out JJ Slevin and Aidan Coleman, who retired in the spring.

However I felt that there were things that have been overlooked and the main one relates to pedigrees. I’m not expecting the type of utterance we used to hear in the old days from Jimmy Lindley … “I ‘rid’ the dam” … but there are at least three runners this week who are bred to improve significantly for the step up in trip.

They are Ballyburn, Johnnywho and Banbridge.

Of course there are other factors to note … in the case of Ballyburn he needs to settle … but I would have expected those with a professional involvement in the business to at least refer to the pedigree, especially when discussing the probability of Banbridge seeing out the extra two furlongs of the Gold Cup trip.

We should all be looking for an ‘edge’, and now that I’m old enough to go back two or three generations in a pedigree there is not a day when I don’t refer to a horse’s breeding, flat or jumps.

I will have more to say on this subject and other matters which I believe have been overlooked in the build-up to the meeting in my Daily Bulletins 

Bye for now

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