Marten Julian Direct

Newmarket Guineas Double Landed

The results for the 2012 Flat Season are as follows: Ascot Champions Day 1 point LSP, Newmarket Cambridgeshire 10 points LSP (inc Bronze Angel 9'1, Basseterre 4'1, Steeler 11'4), York Ebor 13 points LSP (inc Hototo 10'1 and Old Man Clegg 10'1), Goodwood 9.5 points Loss, Newmarket July 5.5 points Loss, Royal Ascot 38.5 points LSP (inc Hototo 14'1, Little Bridge 12'1, Joviality 11'1, Princess Highway 17'2, Reckless Abandon 4'1, Sea Moon 3'1, Estimate 3'1, So You Think 4'5) Epsom Derby & Oaks  9 points LSP (inc Chilworth Icon 12'1 and Fiery Lad 10'1) and Newmarket Guineas 6.6 points Loss.

The first Online Preview of the season gave Dawn Approach and Sky Lantern, with Just The Judge next best, for the 2,000 Guineas and 1,000 Guineas.

Wednesday 22 May

Telescope was less than convincing in a public gallop at Lingfield today, when he was pushed out to get the better of the 95-rated four-year-old Opinion. Apparently he has beaten that horse by 30 lengths on occasions at home, but he was not able to reproduce that level of superiority today. He became notably edgy beforehand, raced keenly in the early stages of the gallop and wasn't helped by his tongue slipping over the bit.

Harry Herbert, head of the Highclere Syndicate, and Sir Michael Stoute described the colt's effort as "workmanlike", and a final decision about his participation at Epsom will be made after he works again at Newmarket on Saturday.

My view is that he will go to post, although bookmakers unsurprisingly eased him in the market for the Derby.

Following the news about Frankie Dettori last night the industry took another knock when Eddie Ahern was today found guilty of corruption by the BHA. Ahern has been found in breach of three separate rules - conspiring to commit a corrupt or fraudulent practice, communicating inside informaton for reward and intentionally failing to ensure a horse was run on its merits.

Bye for now

***

Tuesday 21 May

The racing is pretty dire at the moment, with around six mediocre meetings a day. I'm looking forward to Cartmel this weekend, with the promise of sizeable fields thanks to good to soft ground.

Telescope works at around 1.00pm at Lingfield tomorrow, so that is something to look forward to.

Bye for now

***

Sunday 19 May

It seems that Telescope delighted his trainer and connections when beating a useful older handicapper by 30 lengths in a spin over the Limekilns this morning. The colt was ridden by Kevin Bradshaw, with Ryan Moore riding his stable companion. The plan is now to take the colt away for a racecourse gallop, possibly next Wednesday at Lingfield.

Highclere's Harry Herbert says that Sir Michael was "very, very pleased" with what was a proper piece of work on the trial ground. Things are still being taken on a day-by-day basis, but this was a step in the right direction and the colt could not be in better hands.

Clon Brulee won the 1m 2f handicap at Ripon today with any amount in hand. I have always liked this son of Modigliani, who could be one to keep in mind for a Saturday handicap.

Bye for now

***

Friday 17 May

I have been away the Doncaster sales for a couple of days, but managed to catch up with the action at York this morning.

I was more impresssed than most by the victory of Liber Nauticus in the Musidora Stakes. Anyone who had taken the trouble to look at how she won her maiden at Goodwood last year would not have been in the least surprised at the manner of her victory. She took a while to get going at Goodwood and is all about stamina, not speed. She is a lazy worker at home but that is no bad thing and I will be disappointed if she doesn't go very close in the Oaks. You won't see the best of this filly until she is asked to tackle a mile and a half.

Beldale Memory established her claims as a Queen Mary prospect when beating a decent field in today's opener at York. She was very well bought at just 8,000gns as a yearling and nows runs in the colours of Qatar Racing.

I am off racing to Aintree this evening and will be back here on Sunday with some reflections.

Bye for now

***

Wednesday 15 May

I am away at York and the Doncaster sales for the next two days. I will be back here on Friday with some thoughts.

Bye for now

***

Tuesday 14 May

The news came through this morning that Telescope suffered grazing on his left front and hind legs when he went for a trip in the horsebox. He was, consequently, not declared for Thursday's Dante Stakes.

More will be known in the next 48 hours, but the hope is that he will recover sufficiently to do a piece of work at a track at some point next week. Syndicate manager Harry Herbert says that blood tests reveal the horse is fighting an infection. His work up until this point had been very impressive, but Sir Michael has faced similar problems in the past and managed to meet the big targets.

This leaves the Dante with a more open look to it, although I have to say that I am not in the frame of mind to try and nominate another ante-post bet for Epsom at this stage. As far as I can see there are stamina doubts about the front two - Dawn Approach and Battle Of Marengo - while we now have this situation with Telescope. The Dante may answer a few questions.

I am off to Doncaster Sales to see the store horses on Thursday. I will be back with more thoughts for you on Friday.

Bye for now

***

Sunday 12 May

I may be made to look foolish come Derby day but, for me, there is a serious doubt about Battle Of Marengo staying a mile and a half.

His dam is by a daughter of Green Desert and I have long believed he will struggle over the Derby distance. In fact I was happy to lay him at 1.16 on Betfair today over the mile and a quarter, even though he had won over the trip on his seasonal debut. I thought he was tying up inside the final furlong, although the trainer says he only does the bare minimum to win.

With doubts also about Dawn Approach's stamina I am looking for a good show from Telescope at York on Thursday. If he wins well then I would confidently expect him to challenge Dawn Approach for favouritism, with Battle Of Marengo proving weak. I also like Windhoek, although he is another for whom there are stamina doubts.

Bye for now

***

Friday 10 May

I wasn't entirely surprised to see Mad Moose run so well in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester today.

The nine-year-old is better known for his antics over jumps, but those close to the yard tell me nothing can get near him in work at home and he is now, belatedly, displaying that talent on the Flat. He seemed to beat Elidor with something in hand on his Flat debut at Doncaster - even though the second looked unlucky - and although his mark of 79 left him 38lb behind Mount Athos his connections expected him to run well. Quite what this will do to his mark remains to be seen, but that won't matter because he earned over £16,000 for this performance and can run for the same sort of money in similar races for the remainder of his days.

I advise you to keep a very close eye on the opening race at Ascot this evening. My news beforehand was that Messrs Hannon, Gosden and Brittain were running their best early two-year-old fillies. Connections of Clive Brittain's Rizeena, who had run so well on her Newmarket debut, could not see her getting beaten, while there was hefty support for Richard Hannon's Oriel. Mick Channon had hopes for Caletta Bay, who ran very well to finish third under tender handling. Don't be surprised if this race points the way to Group-class form. By the way my Perspective feature was updated today (see blogs page).

You can hear my thoughts for the weekend on 0906 150 1555 before I leave for Haydock. As usual any selections will be given in the first minute of the message.

Have a great weekend and bye for now.

***

Thursday 9 May

There was a proper old-fasioned gamble today, not at Chester, but at Newton Abbot where Jonjo O'Neill's Church Field was hammered in the betting from 10/1 to 3/1 before running out a five-lengths winner of the 2m 1f 0-95 novices' handicap hurdle.

There has always been a strong betting angle to horses running in the colours of JP McManus, but this one was hard to find. Making his handicap debut from a mark of 85, he had been beaten 33 lengths, 48 lengths and 43 lengths on his last three outings. However, having run through a recording of his last run at Kempton in April, I have to say that he ran and jumped well for a long way, only losing his place on the home turn. It was a better race than this and he definitely showed ability. The result did, though, cause a bit of a stir, probably more because of the hefty market move than anything else.

Grandorio, who made all to win the 1m 0-75 handicap at Newcastle last night, is a name for the notebook. The son of Oratorio won a 1m nursery last August and did well to win over the same trip this week because his dam is a daughter of Shirley Heights, who is an influence for stamina. I really liked the way he quickened from the front and he looks to me like a horse who will be racing from a mark in the high 80s when he is stepped up in trip.

Ruler Of The World galloped away with the Chester Vase. He did enough here to warrant a run at Epsom, especially as he gets the trip so well, without suggesting he has the class to win a good Derby.

Bye for now

***

Tuesday 7 May

I have just written a Perspective with my reflections on Newmarket Guineas weekend. It includes a few clues for the future.

I have strong views on the Chester meeting which starts tomorrow. You can hear my thoughts on 0906 150 1555 where, as usual, any selections will be given in the first minute of the message.

Bye for now

***

Monday 6 May

Before discussing the weekend events at Newmarket in specific detail, I just need to pass comment on the wellbeing of Mark Johnston's horses.

Although Middleham would not have been immune to the cold and damp winter, all Mark's horses looked well, shining in their coats and well muscled up. The same could not have been said for horses from other top yards, even though the winners were evenly distributed across the board.

On Sunday backers of Telescope would have been encouraged to see his older galloping companion Opinion run well in the opening handicap. This was a good effort from the 94-rated four-year-old and it bodes well for Telescope, who tackles the Dante Stakes at York.

Dank continued the good run of Sir Michael Stoute's fillies by pipping Chigun in the Dahlia Stakes. Shirocco Star could not reproduce her form on the fast ground here. Doctor Parkes is a horse to keep in mind for a big sprint at some point this season while Pure Excellence, who has slipped down the weights, will be back winning when the soft ground returns.

I was pleased to see the 1,000 Guineas fought out between Sky Lantern and Just The Judge - the two horses I nominated in my Dark Horses and, fortunately, stuck with on the day.

Richard Hannon's team had been saying all spring that the ground could not be quick enough for Sky Lantern, so conditions came right for her as the sun beamed down. The race was run to suit her as Richard Hughes had something to aim at entering the final furlong. Just The Judge travelled well and was caught close home. As a daughter of Lawman out of a mare by Rainbow Quest I would love to see her tackling middle distances. The Oaks would be the right race for her. Moth finishing better than anything in third while Maureen didn't get the best of rides or runs. Hot Snap, a daughter of Pivotal, was always going to struggle on the ground. Ollie Olga hasn't grown that much.

On Saturday the paddock pointed the way to a winner or two. Universal was toned and tuned for the Jockey Club Stakes, which he duly won, with Wigmore Hall looking as if the race would bring him on. Stable-companion Windhoek powered away with the Listed race. He is not bred to stay a mile and a half, but if connections opt for the Derby then I would be giving him plenty of respect.

Dawn Approach looked much as I expected before the 2,000 Guineas.

My impression was that the run would bring him on. Frankel is a very hard act to follow, of course, but Dawn Approach has a similar style of racing in that he powers away in the closing stages. My view is that his optimum trip will be around a mile to ten furlongs. His distaff side is made up mainly of milers, and I believe his trainer has private doubts about the trip.

Of the others Toronado got warm beforehand. To my eyes Richard Hughes looked concerned in the paddock and I suspect he felt something was not quite right at that stage. Mars ran well without suggesting he can win the Derby. Moohaajim is not that big but everything is in the right place. He is much better than this form suggests.

I will pass on further thoughts through the course of the next few days.

Bye for now

***

Friday 3 May

I am leaving shortly for Newmarket having completed Parts One and Two of the Online Preview. They will be online to read this evening and tomorrow. I think there are a couple of very long-priced horses with chances in the 1,000 Guineas, both with claims on the book.

I hope to be back here over the weekend with some reflections on how things went.

Bye for now

***

Thursday 2 May

All eyes will be on Newmarket this weekend, but jumping enthusiasts will have been watching Cheltenham's popular hunter chase card yesterday evening and it's quite possible there was a future star on show.

Harbour Court, a seven-year-old son of Karinga Bay, won the Intermediate Point-to-Point Championship Final in the manner of a horse going places. That is, indeed, what may happen because I am sure a few of the game's bigger names would be keen to acquire him. Given current prices for a horse of this type, I would expect him to fetch a significant six-figure sum if he were to appear on the market.

My Online Preview for the Guineas meeting will be available on Friday evening, covering 2,000 Guineas day, with Part Two on Saturday evening, covering 1,000 Guineas day. I have news coming through for a handicapper who is considered well treated for his seasonal return.

You can keep in touch with me through my line - 0906 150 1555 - which is updated by 12 noon each day. As always, any selections will be given in the first minute of the message.

Bye for now

***

Wednesday 1 May

Estimate justified marked confidence when staying on strongly to win the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot today. She gets the two miles well and there must be every chance that she will stay further still. One of her half-sisters won the French St Leger and another one won the Ascot Gold Cup, so I would expect that race to be on the agenda for this filly in June.

This was a good day for Sir Michael Stoute because he had two winners at Pontefract as well. With an unraced filly winning a maiden yesterday, Sir Michael's horses are in good form. This bodes well for Telescope and Liber Nauticus, his contenders for Epsom. He has some interesting older horses running this weekend, notably Rye House and Sir John Hawkwood.

I am travelling south to Newmarket on Friday for the Guineas weekend. I am working on my Online Preview tomorrow, with Part One covering 2,000 Guineas day available to read on Friday evening, and Part Two available on Saturday evening.

I will be back here tomorrow with some early thoughts for the big weekend.

Bye for now

***

Monday 29 April

Olivier Peslier has been called upon by Richard Hannon to ride Maureen in Sunday's 1,000 Guineas. Peslier sprang a surprise in the 2,000 Guineas six years ago when winning aboard Cockney Rebel, and this filly will be suited to Peslier's quiet style of riding.

Fourteen horses have been declared for the 2,000 Guineas for which Dawn Approach is a top-quoted 11/8. Toronado is available in one place at 11/4 but more generally 5/2, with Mars 9/1 and stable-companion Cristoforo Colombo at 10/1. Garswood was popular today following upbeat reports from connections - now 14/1 - with George Vancouver at 16/1. Moohaajim, who would prefer faster ground than he encountered in the Greenham, is a little bit of value at 25/1. There are still doubts about him staying the mile.

The best backed horse in the 1,000 Guineas was Moth, supplemented for the race and significantly short with Ladbrokes at 6/1. Sky Lantern, the choice of Richard Hughes, is 12/1 which is the same price as Big Break. Sky Lantern is fair each-way value to reverse nell Gwyn form with the favourite.

I will be at Newmarket this weekend to see season's first two Classics. Refer to the shop if you would like to order my Online Preview.

Bye for now

*** 
 

Sunday 28 April

I will update this page tomorrow.

Bye for now

***

Friday 26 April

I am leaving early tomorrow morning from the Lakes to get to Sandown for a great day's jumping action. I was away today so I'll be back on Sunday with my thoughts from the weekend.

Give me a ring on 0906 150 1555 on Saturday morning to hear my views on the day's action.

Have a great weekend and bye for now.

***

Thursday 25 April

Solwhit had to be withdrawn from the start of the World Series Hurdle at Punchestown today after blood was found coming from his nose. His absence robbed the race of the big clash so many people had been looking forward to, but given the way Quevega won it's probably fair to say that Solwhit would have struggled to beat the mare anyway. A line through Reve de Sivola suggests there would not have been much between them, but Quevega won this with some ease.

On other matters Mahmood Al Zarooni received an eight-year ban after being found guilty of a number of doping offences. Anyone who thinks this is the end of the matter should be on their guard. Apparently the vet's asssitant had no idea what he was injecting.

I will have more to say about this in the next few days.

Bye for now

***   

Wednesday 24 April

Sir Des Champs prevailed in a thrilling finish to the Punchestown Gold Cup today, repelling the renewed challenge of Long Run by three-quarters of a length with First Lieutenant just half a length back in third.

This was a tremendous effort from the winner, but the runner-up comes out of the race with great credit having looked beaten turning for home. Long Run has now finished in the first three in all 26 of his 26 lifetime starts, with eight of his last nine races coming at Grade 1 level. To my eyes Sam Waley-Cohen did nothing wrong here, even though he was up against one of the game's most accomplished horsemen. Sir Des Champs had finished two and three-quarter lengths ahead of Long Run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, so taking that into account there is clearly not more than a pound or two between them. Nicky Henderson will rightly feel that Bobs Worth, who beat Sir Des Champs by seven lengths at Cheltenham, still has a few pounds in hand of his nearest rival.

I was surprised to see Davy Russell kick on round the home turn today. I was expecting him to ride a more patient race and, perhaps, that will be the plan next time.

I will be back here tomorrow with a few more observations.

Bye for now

***

Tuesday 23 April

It was great to see Sprinter Sacre confirm his status as one of the best two-mile chasers ever seen when beating old rival Sizing Europe in the Boylesports.com Champion Chase at Punchestown today.

It would be fair to say this was more workmanlike than impressive, with the runner-up finishing far closer to the winner than he had at Cheltenham, but this was the winner's third race in just over a month and all credit to connections for risking so much to come here. Sprinter Sacre will be put away now for a summer's grass and we have to wait for next season until we see him again. He could, in my view, be better still with another summer on his back.

This success was welcome in the light of last night's revelations about Mahmood Al Zarooni. I have to say that having known Simon Crisford for many years I find it extraordinary that a man of his intelligence and integrity could have missed this gross flouting of the rules. Sheikh Mohammed is known to have a very close involvement in the training of his horses which makes it even more extraordinary that this was missed. As Nick Godfrey wrote in today's Racing Post we cannot underestimate the gravity of these charges, notably because the drugs involved are the most notorious of performance-enhancing substances.

Once again racing is making the headlines for all the wrong reasons, with this story undoing much of the good engendered following the Grand National. It is, though, essential that this matter is addressed just as it is in other sports.

Bye for now

***

Sunday 21 April

I returned from Ayr to the Lakes late last night so have not yet had a chance to assess the weekend's racing elsewhere.

I did take a look at the Greenham Stakes this afternoon, where Moohaajim looked to have everything covered until appearing to tire inside the final furlong. I liked the way Olympic Glory got down to battle after looking in trouble a quarter of a mile from home. Moohaajim ran like a horse short of stamina - something which has concerned me all winter - but the jockey said afterwards he just needed the race. I am not so sure, and it may be that we see Moohaajim at his best over six furlongs. Trainer Marco Botti says he will be more effective on quicker ground.

I like the way Maureen won the race formerly known as the Fred Darling Stakes. She travelled well then quickened to win cosily by three-quarters of a length from Agent Allison. Rosdhu Queen, a very doubtful stayer in my book, had no chance of getting the trip under a surprisingly prominent ride from Johnny Murtagh. By contrast Maureen is out of a mare by Linamix from a family of stayers.

I will be back with more thoughts tomorrow.

Bye for now

***

Thursday 18 April

I was at Cheltenham when today's racing took place but everyone had to be impressed with the way Toronado won the Craven Stakes today. Richard Hughes made the running on him, just as he did in the Champagne Stakes last season, but on this occasion his margin of superiority over Dundonnell was four lengths and a neck, conceding 3lb, rather than half a length at levels.

I have thought for a few weeks now that Dawn Approach and Toronado could be exceptional, and if I had taken a short price about Jim Bolger's colt I would now most definitely be saving on Toronado. Few horses quicken in the way he did from the front and a line through Dundonnell would put this performance in the low 120s. Dawn Approach is on 121 and I will be surprised if anything else manages to match that sort of figure between now and the Guineas.

I will be back here with more thoughts when I return north tomorrow evening.

Bye for now.

***

Wednesday 17 April

I am leaving this morning for the Cheltenham point-to-point sales this evening. I am not in a position to buy, as prices will be very high, but I hope to make extensive notes to then pass on my observations when it comes to writing the National Hunt Guide for next season.

I hope to update this page tomorrow (Thursday) subject to my acquiring internet access.

You can hear my thoughts for the action at Newmarket, Newbury and elsewhere through my line, as always.

for now

***

Monday 15 April

Some of the names that I was looking forward to seeing at Newmarket this week have appeared, although I am a little concerned that the ground is still officially given as good to soft. Conditions can dry out quite quickly, though, so I hope there is no more rain around.

There are a couple of interesting horses declared for the opener on Wednesday and then some speedy early two-year-olds meet in the Class 3 conditions race. Mick Channon runs Bungle Inthejungle and Graphic Guest in the £110,000 Tattersalls Millions Sprint, with Chilworth Icon and Ayaar meeting in the Free Handicap. Sky Lantern, who has been working extremely well, will probably head the market in the Nell Gwyn Stakes, where the less-exposed Lady Nouf and Hot Snap will be interesting. Sorella Bella, who is very tough, could run well here. Andrew Balding's highly-rated Race And Status meets six others in the Feilden Stakes.

I will be on my way to Cheltenham for some jumping action and a look at the sales on Wednesday evening, and then the races on Thursday followed by a visit to a local yard on Friday morning.

One eye-catcher today was Jolly Roger in the closing handicap at Windsor. I assume this - his first run since July - was intended to be a pipe-opener for a return to jumps. On this evidence he won't be long in winning.

Bye for now

*** 

Friday 12 April

I am looking forward to the Craven meeting next week. I am not sure if I can get there, but I see from the entries that we are in for a most informative couple of days.

There is a Godolphin newcomer I have been waiting for since last season in one of the maidens, while the Nell Gwyn has attracted entries for Maureen, Winning Express, Nargys and Hot Snap.

On Thursday there is an assortment of names from my notebook in the Wood Ditton while John Gosden's top three-year-old prospect Ghurair is down to run in the Tattersalls Millions Trophy. Richard Hughes is booked for the highly-rated Toronado in the Craven Stakes, with Dundonnell, Race And Status, Tawhid and Trading Leather also entered. Hillstar, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, could be interesting in the 1m 2f 0-95 handicap which closes the card.

You can hear my thoughts for the weekend on Saturday morning when, as usual, any selections will be given in the first minute of the message.

Have a great weekend and bye for now.

***

Thursday 11 April

Milder, but wetter, weather is expected next week in time for the Craven meeting which for many represents the proper start of the new Flat season.

One of the better long-term bets for the new season may be the 7/4 about Richard Hannon being champion trainer.

Aidan O'Brien is as short as 5/4 in places, but he needs to win a Guineas and a Derby to be sure of taking the title and Hannon is very strong with his three-year-olds this year. He has been very positive about 1,000 Guineas contender Sky Lantern, reported in today's Racing Post as saying that he can't remember a filly doing as well as she has over the winter. She goes for the Fred Darling at Newbury and then the Guineas. I am particularly looking forward to seeing Toronado in action. Hannon has a line to the top two-year-old form through Racing Post Trophy runner-up Van Der Neer, who won at Lingfield last weekend, and Olympic Glory. My impression is that Toronado, recently acquired by the owner of Olympic Glory, is their pick at this stage.

The momentum behind Dawn Approach has been quite strong in the last few weeks. I noticed Ladbrokes closing up on the colt before Cheltenham - they have been reluctant to lay him all winter - and they are now 5/4, as opposed to 6/4 elsewhere. As I wrote in my Dark Horses Annual this colt has that quirkiness often associated with top-class performers - he can be very keen at the start of a race and then very lazy at the finish. Jim Bolger has been very upbeat in his early statements about the colt, while there seems to be a lack of confidence at Ballydoyle that they have anything good enough to beat him.

Some of you have been in touch about my services for the season. I have not been in a rush to get anything out yet because the season has not really kicked into gear. I will be doing Online Previews again for the major meetings, starting with the Guineas meeting at Newmarket, while I am also offering my Personal Consultancy Service.

Just keep an eye on the Online Shop for news or contact Rebecca (rebecca@martenjulian.com).

Bye for now

***

Tuesday 9 April

Trainers and connections are always optimistic for their horses at this time of year, but a few of the horses I am keen on for the new season have been favourably mentioned in the last few days.

Toronado is possibly the pick of Richard Hannon's strong team of three-year-olds. Richard Hughes certainly thinks the world of him and the success on Saturday of stable-companion Van Der Neer gave a lift to the yard. I am told that Marco Botti's Moohaajim has not grown much. He goes for the Greenham and then either the English or French Guineas, assuming all goes well at Newbury.