Wednesday 7 October
There has been a lot of comment and reflection on Sunday's Arc in the last few days, especially in relation to Treve and the reasons for her defeat. Much of the criticism has been aimed at her rider Thierry Jarnet, suggesting that he forfeited too much ground by taking a wide course.
For me the answer is far simpler. Yes, she might have been better suited to cover even though she adopted a similar route when surging away with the Prix Vermeille, but to my eyes she was unhappy on the quick ground from the outset. Excuses of a physical nature were made when she was beaten at Royal Ascot last season - and that was on ground described as good to firm. The ground was given as good when she won last year's Arc, having been soft the year before, but according to reports from those who walked the course on Sunday morning - including commentator Simon Holt and Mick Fitzgerald - there was very little 'good' underfoot.
The other explanantion is that Golden Horn is quite simply the better horse. There has never been more than a pound or two behind Treve and an in-form Flintshire, and that was again the case on Sunday. Golden Horn is incredibly tough - that is the key to him - and I was entirely wrong to think that this would be a bridge too far. He is an exception to the rule, and Frankie Dettori would not have said that he is 'the best horse I have ever ridden' without giving the matter a great deal of thought.
We are likely to get the chance to see Golden Horn again at the Breeders' Cup, for which he is justifiably a shade of odds-on. As for last Sunday, it is my view that the best horse won.
By the way I was relieved to read that there was a valid excuse for the poor run of Antonoe in the Prix Marcel Boussac. Pascal Bary's filly apparently sustained a hairline fracture to her pelvis but the trainer says she should be back in action next spring, with the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches as her main target.
I am travelling to Newmarket this weekend, so you can hear my thoughts for a great day's action by ringing my line on 0906 150 1555. This will be updated on Friday morning, covering both the Friday and Saturday cards.
Bye for now
Monday 5 October
Looking back briefly to yesterday’s Arc the race was all about two things – the quick ground and the extraordinary self-belief of Frankie Dettori.
Both Golden Horn and Flintshire were proven at a high level on fast ground, and it was clear from the race-times and course records on the previous day’s card that the going was quick. Most of the other runners in the race, notably Treve, had shown their form on good or easier ground. Treve never looked at ease on the going – at least not to my eyes – while I felt New Bay did not pick up as well as he has in the past.
Frankie’s decision to tackle the pacemaker from his wide draw was inspired, requiring him to exercise his masterly judgement of pace. He had to believe that his mount would find enough in the straight to hold the late challengers and he did – remarkably for a colt for whom there had been stamina doubts earlier in the season.
Elsewhere on the card we need to keep Ultra in mind for middle-distance honours next season. The son of Manduro is sure to stay a mile and a half on breeding and it will be interesting to see whether he is campaigned next spring with a view to Epsom or Chantilly.
Bye for now
Wednesday 30 September
I have always loved Arc weekend. I don't get to Longchamp much these days, but I have been very lucky in the big race itself, going back to 1981 when I tipped 50/1 winner Gold River in my Warm Up column of the Sunday Times. Since then other good winners have come along, most notably Workforce in 2010.
I am providing a Snapshot service for this weekend, which will be available for subscribers to download on Sunday morning covering not only the Arc but the day's other Group 1 races (see shop for further details).
Treve, who looked awesome when winning the Prix Vermeille, attempts to become the first five-year-old mare to win the race since Corrida, who won it twice in 1936 and 1937.
I have long been a massive fan of Andre Fabre, who has trained the winner seven times most recently in 2007 with Rail Link. All Fabre's Arc winners won the Prix Niel - the race that New Bay won - apart from Peintre Celebre, who finished second in that race.
The draw is always a factor in the Arc, with only two winners in recent years drawn from a stall higher than nine. Stall one is the coffin box, for reasons unknown to me, and 16 of the last 21 Arcs have been won by three-year-olds. Only eight horses aged five or older have won the race since its inception back in 1920. The last horse aged five to win was Marienbard in 2002.
History is against Treve, mainly on the grounds of her age. There is also a suggestion in some quarters that she may have peaked in the Vermeille, although recent work in the last few days has led her trainer to believe she has never been better.
John Gosden has left Jack Hobbs in the race just in case the ground softens. The current forecast is for dry weather but there is a possibility of showers over the weekend. Golden Horn will be supplemented on Thursday at a cost of 120,000 Euros.
Mecca's Angel, for whom showers would be very welcome, heads the list of 24 entries for the Prix de l'Abbaye. The Flying Childers winner Gutaifan is the only two-year-old old left in the line-up. Star Of Seville and Covert Love, winners of the French and Irish Oaks, are among 17 possibles for the Prix de l'Opera, with Found and Tapestry entered here as well as the Arc. Aidan O'Brien has entered Minding and Ballydoyle for the Prix Marcel Boussac.
This promises to be a great weekend.
Bye for now
Tuesday 15 September
There are a few days in the autumn racing programme which are essential viewing, and St Leger and Arc trials weekend must rank top of the list. Apart from the final Classic of the season there is also an informative support card at Doncaster, the Irish Champion Stakes and then three important Arc trials on Sunday.
It’s hard to know where to start, but having taken time to watch reruns of the St Leger I feel that in the context of recent times the stewards’ decision to disqualify Simple Verse was incorrect. Years ago, or currently in the States and perhaps France, there would be no question that the winner would have been thrown out, but in this country it’s different and to my eyes Bondi Beach had every chance of taking the lead yet at no stage did he strike the front. By contrast the filly had to force her way through a narrow gap and gamely held on to the line, despite not appearing to be as hard ridden as the one-paced runner-up.
Hearing the jockeys put forward their arguments in the stewards’ room afterwards Andrea Atzeni could and should have made a stronger case in his defence. From what I could hear his argument lacked conviction and he was unwise to conclude with the words that “it was 50/50”. It would be inappropriate to prejudge the result of the appeal, but in my view there is a good chance that the decision will be reversed.
Earlier Atzeni had been more fortunate on Limato, who ran out a hugely impressive of the Group 2 Park Stakes despite being well out of his ground for much of the race. It is rare to see a horse quicken to pass as many horses as he did – especially at this level – and then surge clear to win by such a wide margin. This was the colt’s first attempt at seven furlongs although with a dam by Singspiel that won over ten furlongs, and has produced a winning hurdler, I never doubted he would stay the trip and perhaps even further.
Limato handled the good to soft ground well, even though trainer Henry Candy says he is better suited to quicker going. On this evidence he can win at Group 1 level, if not this season then next. Also at Doncaster I was delighted to see Hoof It return to winning ways for my clients, while Tashweeq and Emotionless look set for Classic targets next season.
In Ireland Golden Horn’s courage and tenacity got him home in the Irish Champion Stakes after a collision a quarter of a mile from home with Free Eagle. He had a hard race here and I just wonder whether his long season may take its toll come Arc day. Talking of the Arc, it was interesting to find that Postponed - visually the least impressive of the three winners last Sunday – put in the fastest time of the three races by almost two seconds. The general consensus was that Postponed’s three-quarter length defeat of Spiritjim did not compare with the form shown by Treve in the Vermeille or New Bay in the Niel, but it would be wrong to underestimate Luca Cumani’s son of Dubawi, especially as the soft ground would not have been in his favour.
As you are aware I have been keen for some time on New Bay for the Arc, but there is no getting away from the way Treve put over four lengths between herself and the second in just a matter of strides. This was a breathtakingly impressive display and it’s no surprise that the bookmakers now offer no more than evens. New Bay is still fair each-way value at 5/1 while Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs are next best at 7/1 and 10/1 respectively. Postponed is overpriced at 20/1. I have to say that this year’s Arc looks as good as any in recent years. With a packed autumn programme already upon us we are heading for a tremendous end to the season.
Bye for now.
Thursday 10 September
I could probably have chosen a quieter weekend to spend a few days away, but I have a long-standing engagement in Verona on Saturday evening to celebrate Alex and my Ruby Wedding anniversary.
I have, at last, come to a view on the St Leger but with so much uncertainty over the chance of rain in Ireland, and the timing of it, I would not want to commit myself at this stage on the Irish Champion Stakes. On Sunday in France we have Arc trials day, when I hope to see New Bay confirm his big-race credentials in the Prix Niel.
My thoughts for the third and fourth days of Doncaster can be found in the Online Preview, which is available tonight. Because I am leaving in the early hours of Friday I am updating my line this evening, when you can hear my thoughts for all the weekend action (0906 150 1555).
I look forward to catching up with all the racing upon my return on Monday afternoon. I hope you enjoy a great weekend's viewing!
Bye for now
Friday 4 September
This is my favourite time of year, with the better quality late-developing two-year-olds starting to appear.
I am not sure that Worlds His Oyster falls quite into that category, but he looked very useful when showing a sharp turn of foot to beat the short-priced favourite Spanish City by three and a quarter lengths in the 6f maiden at Newcastle today. I fielded against the favourite for my PCS clients, on the grounds that he had not done a particularly good time when third on his Haydock debut, but even so the winner looked useful with trainer John Quinn suggesting afterwards that there were better things in store for him. He added that the son of Pivotal was a sick horse when he returned from his debut at York, but there was a twinkle in his eye when discussing the colt afterwards and I suspect he will prove good enough for Pattern-class races either later this autumn or next season.
Taurean Star won the opening 6f maiden at Ascot in pleasing style. Jamie Spencer said afterwards that the son of Elnadim works like a useful horse at home but has not really reproduced that level of ability on the track. There was much to like about the way he weaved his way through the field to win this, and he could be interesting in a back-end maiden or even something better. This six furlongs looks better for him than the seven furlongs of his first two starts.
The most impressive two-year-old winner of the day was Priceless at Haydock. Clive Cox's daughter of Exceed And Excel hacked up by a wide margin on her debut, with the odds-on favourite Jadaayil dropping away to finish fourth. I rate this useful form.
As I say I get interesting news at this time of year, so give me a ring on 0906 150 1555 to hear my thoughts. As always, any selections are given in the first minute of the message.
Bye for now
Tuesday 25 August
There have been persistent rumours in the last fortnight that Aidan O’Brien may be ready to move along and make way for someone else to take over at Ballydoyle. Apparently he was upset that his son Joseph was replaced by Ryan Moore and feels the time may be right to scale down his interest, perhaps focusing more on training jumpers.
One name that was put in the frame was David O’Meara, but he quashed the rumours with a statement on Monday, stating that he has "never been approached by anyone at Coolmore."
Emma Ramsden certainly appears to suspect something judging by her brief interview with O'Brien on Channel 4 at the weekend, when she raised the question of Joseph stopping race-riding, possibly to train jumpers, eliciting the following slightly enigmatic but still revealing response from O’Brien:
“Obviously they are training them the whole time and I am surplus to requirements at the moment. I’m only going along with it … the lads are all a big part of the team … everybody knows that Joseph is doing his best with his weight … there are plenty of horses there for everybody to train and the more people that want to train them the more I’d be happy … Joseph plays a big part in it and always has … hopefully he will keep helping us for a while … ”
Aidan has his own way of saying things but although he has had to toe the party line on many occasions, especially in relation to his racehorses and their futures as stallions, he is also very much his own man and that is how John Magnier always wanted it to be. I do, though, recall an occasion earlier in the summer when Aidan hinted that he was not as involved as he once was.
My view is that there will be changes at Ballydoyle at some point this year, probably at the end of the season. Aidan will still be as involved as he wants to be, but possibly in a joint-role.
Wednesday 12 August
One of the most frustrating things for a serious backer, especially one who is looking more towards the long term, is a sudden or unexpected change in the ground.
We have had plenty of occasions in recent years when that has happened, exacerbated sometimes by clerks of the course trying to ensure the ground doesn't get too firm through premature watering. My view is that watering should only be used to try and ensure safe ground, but sometimes it can go too far and lead to a radical change which, in my view, is wrong.
York's William Derby is generally considered one of the better clerks, handling media and professional enquiries with both integrity and courtesy. He does, though, face an interesting dilemma in the next few days as the forecaster are predicting the equivalent of a month's rainfall descending in unspecified areas of the country over the course of Thursday and Friday. With York's highlight of the year starting on Wednesday, it is no surprise that he has decided not to water the track until seeing what happens on Friday. The forecast from Saturday onwards is for dry weather, so however wet it gets on Friday I would expect the ground to be good or even quicker by the start of the meeting.
As expected Aidan O'Brien has already said that the participation of Gleneagles will depend on there being good quick ground.
The son of Galileo would be tackling a mile and a quarter for the first time which is not, for me, a trip he is bred to suit. His brother Marvellous won the irish 1,000 Guineas but was soundly beaten in both the English and Irish Oaks - her only two attempts at trips beyond a mile. Their dam was a Cherry Hinton at two and is a sister to the miler Giant's Causeway, who did win this race in 2000 but was best over a mile. The family of Gleneagles have generally been at their best at trips up to a mile.
By contrast Golden Horn could be running over his optimum trip. He got the mile and a half well enough at Epsom, but his defeat of The Grey Gatsby at Sandown was probably his best performance - it earned him a BHA rise of 4lb, from 126 to 130. There must be a doubt about his participation if John Gosden deems the ground to be genuinely soft, but in my view that is very unlikely.
If I were making a book on both Golden Horn and Gleneagles meeting then I would be a shade of odds against it happening.
Golden Horn has an unbeaten record to protect, while O'Brien has already withdrawn Gleneagles from one major race - the Sussex Stakes - on slightly tenuous grounds. Of the others Time Test is the most interesting. Roger Charlton's son of Dubawi is rated on 116 - a stone behind Golden Horn - and this is a step up from Group 3 to Group 1 company. However he is highly progressive and those close to him say he works like a Group 1 horse. I must say that if he beats Golden Horn and Gleneagles then it will make a mockery of the former's rating. However he could not be in better hands and he displayed a fine turn of foot to win at Royal Ascot - arguably as good a change of gear as the two principals have shown so far.
I suspect Free Eagle will not be running, as Paddy Power would not be offering a standout 20/1 if they thought he was. Many will take the view that The Grey Gatsby is value at 12/1, even though he is held by Golden Horn and Free Eagle. He does, though, need one of the top three in the market to run poorly or not turn up to allow him into the frame.
York is one of my favourite meetings of the year. I look forward to sharing my views with you in the Online Previews, which will cover each of the four days starting with my assessment of the first day on Tuesday evening.
Bye for now
Sunday 2 August
Looking back over Goodwood the three horses I would bring to your attention are all three-year-olds.
I confidently expect Dartmouth to be competing in Group races this time next year. It is rare for Sir Michael Stoute to talk so highly of one of his horses after a race, but this son of Dubawi was still in the Derby back in the spring and he has always been well regarded. I liked the way he won a maiden at Sandown last September and he was back there to win a 1m 2f handicap off 78 in May. I thought he had got off quite lightly with a 6lb rise for beating Space Age by four lengths at Ascot in July and after winning at Goodwood on Saturday we can expect a rise from 89 to something in the high 90s. Three of his siblings won at 1m 6f or beyond, so expect further improvement when he is stepped up in trip. Dartmouth must be followed.
So, too, must Tashaar, who won the closing 1m 3f 0-90 on Friday. The son of Sea The Stars won this eased down by a length and a half, leaving the impression he was value for many more lengths. I expect him to rise to something between 98 and 102.
Finally I took a great liking to the way Gibeon won the opener on Thursday. The son of Cape Cross has run well all season and he beat a well-regarded horse in Keble, who is thought to be on the verge of Pattern class. His dam won a Group 3 over 1m 6f, from the family of Fame And Glory, so he is another that should improve for a distance of ground.
You won't go far wrong if you stay with these progressive types for the next season or two.
Bye for now
Sunday 26 July
This week is all about Glorious Goodwood which, for all its glamour and attraction as a spectacle, can prove deeply frustrating for serious backers. I have said time and again that Goodwood is a track where the best horse in the race may not necessarily win due to circumstances which are no fault of its own. I have seen horses get stuck on the rails in five-horse fields, although I have to say in recent years jockeys have been more prepared to switch and ensure they get a clear run through. Anyway I have a few horses in mind and the new Snapshot Service is the perfect medium to pass on my thoughts, as I can be more selective than with the Online Preview. The Snapshot will be produced for each of the five days of Goodwood, Tuesday through to Saturday.
Looking back to the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes I belong in the camp that believes this was not a vintage renewal. My personal view is that the ground was nothing like as slow as it walked - it was obviously pretty testing around Swinley Bottom - and if Golden Horn had run he probably would have won. He would, though, have taken plenty out of himself and that might have had consequences for his Juddmonte challenge, which is in just over for weeks' time. There are also hopes for an autumn campaign, including the Arc, so I expect it was consideration for the colt's long-term programme which had a bearing on the decision. John Gosden implied as much, when he said he would probably have come to a different decision if this was to be the horse's last race of the season.
As for the race itself, I was surprised to see Postponed handle the ease in the ground so well. Luca Cumani said afterwards that he didn't know how the colt would act, but he has stressed in the past that Postponed is particuarly well suited to fast ground. I thought Eagle Top was a little unlucky to be forced wide soon after the home turn, losing more ground than the nose by which he was beaten. Initially it looked as if Frankie Dettori had timed his challenge to perfection, and indeed his mount did strike the front for two or three strides before Postponed gallantly fought back to put his head down on the line. The winner's courage won the day - his trainer said afterwards he had never lost a gallop in his life - and following the Hardwicke we have to accept there is precious little between the two horses. We will probably see them meet again in the Arc, where they will come up against the mighty Treve and possibly Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs.
From the rest of the card I think we need to keep on the right side of Portage, who defied a mark of 90 in the 1m handicap. Michael Halford's son of Teofilo met with trouble in running in the Britannia but he won here in the manner of a horse on the verge of Pattern-class. He will be raised about 7/8lb for this, leaving him ideally poised for a strike at the Cambridgeshire.
That race may also be in Simon Crisford's mind for Peril, who won the ladies' race with a little more in hand than the margin suggests.
I hope to be updating this page on a more regular basis from now on following a little time away.
Have a great week and bye for now!
Wednesday 15 July
I am not sure convinced Golden Horn has done enough to warrant his lofty BHA rating of 130 – especially when you consider that is the same mark as Frankel achieved. I have no doubt that if the two were to meet over a mile and a quarter Frankel would be long odds-on to win, but that apart Golden Horn is the best three-year-old colt around this season and is currently an odds-on chance to beat his elders in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Of his rivals stable-companion Eagle Top looks value at 8/1 each-way in the expectation that he can reverse Royal Ascot form with Snow Sky. Postponed and Telescope are others expected to take a hand.
The five-day Glorious Goodwood meeting starts at the end of the month. As you know I approach this fixture with a fine blend of professional interest and trepidation. Over the years I have struggled there, mainly due to the idiosyncratic nature of the course. That may sound a little perverse given that I tend to be very lucky at Epsom, which also has unique characteristics, but time and again at Goodwood I have seen the best horse in the race fail to win – through no fault of its own.
There is, though, keen interest in my thoughts so rather than write an Online Preview for each day I have decided to use the medium of our new Snapshot service. This means I can write a more succinct appraisal of the card on the morning of each day, when I have all the latest news, information and market moves to hand. It also enables me to focus specifically on horses of interest – perhaps no more than two or three a day, at most – rather than feel obliged to preview races in which I don’t hold a view.
You can order the Snapshot service for specific days or at a discounted rate for five or more. I hope and believe that subscribers will soon reap the benefits of this innovation.
One unexpected event that has caught us all by surprise is the injury to Ryan Moore. It is typical of this game that after a truly extraordinary run of success at Royal Ascot he should sustain an injury to his neck when in the stalls for a minor race at Newmarket. Ryan is now as long as 10/1 for the championship, which would look massive if he were to get back into the saddle within a month. Silvestre De Sousa, who was around 33/1 at the start of the season, is now as short as 4/7 in some places while Richard Hughes, who seems more focused on preparing the ground for his new career as a trainer, is easy to back at 7/2.
My view is that the 10/1 about Ryan Moore is probably a little too big, but more will be known after he has undergone further tests. The one thing we do know is that the experts will not be rushing him back until they are absolutely sure is it safe for him to do so.
One horse that did catch my eye in a major way while I was away was Lumiere. You seldom see a two-year-old quicken as she did from the front on her debut, and I gather from a friend of mine who monitors times that her closing fractions were most impressive. She could look great value at 20/1 for the 1,000 Guineas if she impresses in the same way stepped up in grade. She is bred to stay a mile.
Bye for now
Monday 29 June
I am away travelling for a few days so will update this page as and when I can.
Bye for now
Sunday 21 June
Looking back to the events at Royal Ascot last week my overall verdict would be that it was challenging. from a betting perspective, but a great success for the occasion.
From the betting viewpoint I just about broke even. There have been far too many seconds this season and the trend continued this week, but my select list of horses to note for the meeting in the Bulletin Book came up trumps when all three horses won. The fact that was done without the benefit of entries just goes to show how important it is to focus on specific horses rather than get drawn into analysing a race simply because it is there.
On day one I was pleased with the way Cougar Mountain ran, finishing strongly into third behind Solow. This effort was far in excess of his 109 rating and a Group 1 looks sure to come his way. Consort did well to get placed in a Group 1 in the St James's Palace Stakes. Gleneagles just carries on winning and if he keeps this up he may well live up to Aidan O'Brien's suggestion that he's the best miler he has trained. I gather Windsor Castle Stakes winner Washington DC had worked better than Coventry Stakes runner-up Air Force Blue in their preparation for this meeting.
Acapulco put up a breathtaking performance in the Queen Mary Stakes. The imposing daughter of Scat Daddy has the scope to progress and has to be on the shortlist for the Breeders' Cup. Free Eagle was probably fortunate to just beat The Grey Gatsby, who was short of room inside the final furlong. He has the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc as future targets. Old friend Gm Hopkins at last landed the big race his talent warrants when digging deep to win the Royal Hunt Cup. My concern beforehand was that the ground could be on the sharp side for him. He can now tackle Listed and Group races.
Time Test, one of my Premier List qualifiers from the Dark Horses Annual, looked Group 1 material in the Tercentenary Stakes. Peacock, over three lengths back in second, was rated 109 going into this race so the winner must have run to a mark around 115. He is bred to be even better over a mile and a half. Curvy was a gutsy winner for us in the Ribblesdale Stakes and the progressive Trip To Paris beat the luckless Kingfisher in the Gold Cup. Forgotten Rules, in third, will be seen in a far better light on softer ground. I was disappointed that Udododontu didn't quite manage to win the Britannia. This would have been a very welcome result for Richard Guest, who may not get another chance to have a winner here.
Balios, another Premier List horse, made the anticipated improvement to win the King Edward VII Stakes. He should have won on his return at Newmarket's Guineas meeting and I expect him to be competing at Group 1 level before too long. I was surprised to see Muhaarar win the Commonwealth Cup with such ease. Charlie Hills has never concealed the high esteem in which he holds the horse, but I have to say I never expected such a victory of such authority. Ervedya won what will probably prove a very decent renewal of the Coronation Stakes. Lucida had looked a little unlucky in the 1,000 Guineas and she was again unfortunate here, staying on well from her outside draw in stall nine of nine. Arab Dawn was another winner for the Bulletin Book in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes.
Ballydoyle, along with stable-companions Sir Isaac Newton and Kingfisher, was unlukcy not to win the Chesham Stakes. Her inexperience found her out through the race and, as on her debut, it was only in the final furlong she was getting the message. She is proving a slow learner. Mahsoob may join stable-companion Eagle Top in the King George. He won the Wolferton here off 106 and will be rated around 113/155 after this. Snow Sky put his proven stamina to good use in the Hardwicke Stakes, once it was clear that nothing else was going to go on. Eagle Top stayed on well after being intimidated by Postponed in the final quarter mile. Brazen Beau was unlucky not to win the Diamond Jubilee after having to race along up the stands' side.
There is much to glean from the meeting which proved every bit as good as it promised to be.
Bye for now
Sunday 14 June
Frankie Dettori's resurgence back into centre stage continued this afternoon when Star Of Seville atoned for a troubled run in the Oaks by winning the Prix de Diane at Chantilly.
I had not expected the daughter of Duke Of Marmalade, who is out of a Selkirk mare, to stay the mile and a half at Epsom and even without the interference, in my view, she still would have struggled to get home.
Today, back to an extended ten furlongs, she kept on well to beat the twice-raced Physiocrate with Little Nightingale in third. As usual there was trouble in running behind, with Mojo Risin getting bustled around a bit having been off the pace and Malabar a little short of room when trying to make her challenge.
I have just put my message to line on 0906 150 1555 looking ahead to Royal Ascot. There are a few interesting jockey bookings that have caught my eye, notably in the handicaps. I will be updating my line twice a day, every evening by 8.00pm with early thoughts for those of you who like to trade on the exchanges or take early prices, and then again each day by 11.15 when, as usual, any selections will be given in the first minute of the message.
As you are aware I have never looked forward to a Royal Ascot as much as next week's meeting. I hope that you will be joining me, either through the line or one of my wide range of services.
Bye for now
Friday 12 June
I have never looked forward to a Royal Ascot meeting as much as next week, but I have to advise you that my final selections will be very dependent on the state of the ground.
The going is currently good, with good to firm areas, but as you may be aware thunderstorms and flash floods are forecast for the area over the next few days. It is because circumstances can change at short notice that I write the Online Preview, which is available to download the evening before the day’s racing (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday evenings). I also provide a text service, which is sent by noon each day and includes even later news.
I am not sure that today’s Sandown winner Muntadab is going to be quite as good as trainer Sir Michael Stoute hopes. The son of Invincible Spirit made hard work of defying an opening handicap mark of 78 in today’s 0-80, but he hadn’t looked straightforward when winning his maiden at Lingfield. He won’t be raised more than 5 or 6lb for this half-length success and may be the type of slow-burner his trainer handles so well.
I will be looking ahead to Royal Ascot on Sunday evening. Give me a ring on 0906 150 1555 to hear the latest news for the meeting and that all-important weather update (calls charged at £1.50 a minute at all times).
Have a great weekend and bye for now
Monday 8 June
I claim no plaudits for the fact that Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs – first and second in the Derby – made it to the Premier List section of my Dark Horses Annual. The former had impressed me with his finishing effort when beating subsequent Derby third Storm The Stars at Nottingham while Jack Hobbs, having won an all-weather maiden at Wolverhampton a few days after Christmas, appealed as a progressive handicapper with Pattern-class potential.
As someone who enjoys ante-post betting I would have had a modest sum on each at three-figure odds, but Golden Horn did not have a Derby entry at the time and Jack Hobbs was not marked up in the betting until a few days before he ran at Sandown.
As for the Oaks, Qualify did warrant a few lines of mention in the Dark Horses but I never gave her a moment’s consideration for Friday’s Classic. I have since had another look at her run in the Irish 1,000 Guineas and, in truth, she was not really finishing as well as Aidan O’Brien implied after the race. In her defence she does have some very strong stamina influences on her dam’s side, notably from the family of Park Hill Stakes winner Eva Luna.
It must have been pretty galling for the Coolmore owners to see Legatissimo caught in the dying strides by a filly from Ballydoyle that did not run in their colours – especially one that was sold last year.
As for the Derby those, like me, who harboured stamina doubts on the winner’s behalf were put in our place. In fairness my view was that the colt would stay the trip, but perhaps not as well as others. One thing I do believe is that on good ground, or softer, Jack Hobbs would have been closer and possible even have won. As John Gosden says it will be in times to come, as a four and five-year-old, that we see this imposing colt at his best.
Golden Horn will probably now be mainly campaigned at a mile and a quarter, although there is talk of him tackling the King George. Of the others Giovanni Canaletto did indeed prove the pick of Ballydoyle’s three contenders without doing anything to challenge the long-held view that O’Brien lacks a top-class three-year-old colt this year. There has never been the buzz for anything emanating from the yard like we heard for Camelot and Australia.
Elsewhere on the two-day card I have to be impressed with Stravagante in the 1m 2f handicap. The colt went into the race with the profile we have come to associate with challengers from Sir Michael Stoute's yard – he won the race with subsequent St Leger and Breeders’ Cup winner Conduit – and although this son of Rip Van Winkle is unlikely to scale such heights, he is sure to prove effective at Pattern-class level. I expect his mark to rise from 89 to the low 100s following this emphatic victory.
My other selection on Derby day was Barnet Fair, who never got a clear run in the Dash. Looking back this was always on the cards from his nearside stall. Keep him in mind for a similar race, possibly at Goodwood or later in the season at Ayr.
Friday 5 June
Well it wasn't a bad day for clients with my only two star bets winning - Code Red at 14/1 and Al Bandar at 3/1 - but I would never have found the 50/1 Oaks winner Qualify in a month of Sundays.
I immediately reached back for my Dark Horses Annual and noted that I did, in fact, write a few lines about her but I never had her on my mind for today. I see that she wasn't beaten far, making late headway, in the Irish 1,000 Guineas but she had finished 40 lengths behind Legatissimo in the Newmarket Guineas and even allowing for the extra half mile it was well-nigh impossible to envisage her making up the leeway.
Qualify has plenty of stamina on her dam's side and this came to the fore in the dying strides as she caught the favourite close home. Of the others Lady Of Dubai ran a blinder to finish third while Diamondsandrubies, back in fourth, would have been a length or two closer but for being hampered by stable-companion Together Forever two furlongs from home.
My selection Crystal Zvezda ran a shocker after pulling hard in the early stages. This was nothing like the filly that so impressed me at Newbury and I intend to give her another chance. Perhaps something will come to light. On reflection, the curse of stall one may not have helped Legatissimo while she also expended valuable energy reserves by jig-jogging and bucking on the way to the start. She was probably a little unlucky not to win.
I advised that Code Red was overpriced at 20'1 in the morning and was pleased to see him win despite pulling quite hard in the early stages. The colt had run very well in the 2,000 Guineas and this drop back in trip was ideal. William Muir was very positive about his chance beforehand. Al Bandar, my only other star bet of the meeting, won the last with something in hand. He won at Brighton last season for Richard Hannon and likes switchback tracks.
You can hear my early news for Derby day this evening and I will update the line again tomorrow morning when, as always, any selections will be given in the first minute of the message.
Have a great weekend and bye for now.
Sunday 31 May
Things went more according to plan in this afternoon's Prix du Jockey Club, when French 2,000 Guineas runner-up New Bay came with a strong late run to beat Highland Reel, who improved from his debut run behind the winner three weeks ago. The winner stayed the trip very well and Andre Fabre is likely to have the Arc as a long-term aim.
We should be hearing more news tomorrow about the final fields for the Derby and Oaks. I have never known so much uncertainty this close to Epsom, with doubts even about the stamina of the first and second favourites. One rumour doing the rounds over the weekend was that Legatissimo could switch from the Oaks to the Derby, leaving Found to contest the Oaks. What does seem clear is that the team at Coolmore take the view, and I agree, that this year's colts are not as strong as the fillies. As things stand at the moment their only two runners in the Derby are Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, but then they may decide to let Gleneagles join them in the line-up as well.
It was interesting to read Sir Michael Stoute's comment in today's Racing Post about Ryan Moore's availability for Crystal Zvezda, suggesting that the filly was 'his mount' and that Moore had not yet made up his mind. This would suggest Moore is not contractually obliged to ride for Coolmore, or perhaps any arrangement that exists is between Moore and O'Brien. Legatissimo is, of course, trained by David Wachman.
John Gosden, who had two fillies in the Oaks, was extolling the virtues of Crystal Zvezda last week and my view is that she may end up favourite. Richard Hughes seemed impressed when riding her in a piece of work on Saturday but I am sure Stoute would sooner have Moore retain the mount. I was most impressed with the manner of her win at Newbury, although that form falls a few pounds short of the level achieved by the 1,000 Guineas winner.
I am working hard this week on both Epsom and Royal Ascot, with the Bulletin Book due out on Wednesday week.
Bye for now.
Tuesday 26 May
Epsom's 'Breakfast with the Stars' proved informative this morning.
I am not a great judge of work, but to my eyes Elm Park looked the least well-suited to Epsom's gradients, which is a surprise given his relatively compact physique. The son of Phoenix Reach changed his legs on the descent down Tattenham Corner and also looked unbalanced in the straight. I thought Jack Hobbs acted well given his size - better than many would have expected - and John Gosden confirmed that the colt will run in the Derby provided the ground is not too quick. Frankie Dettori took the mount on Golden Horn, who looked very comfortable in his piece of work. Gosden commented afterwards on the colt's calm demeanour and temperament.
Coolmore representative Kevin Buckley said that Irish 1,000 Guineas runner-up Found was still in contention for the Derby but that Gleneagles was unlikely to run. Perhaps the most impressive work of the morning was done by Andre Fabre's Oaks contender Al Naamah, who quickened nicely to pull clear inside the final furlong. My concern with her is that her dam is by Green Desert, raising doubts about her staying the mile and a half.
I was very pleased to read today that Jack Naylor, who caught the eye with her strong finishing effort in the 1,000 Guineas, will be running in the Oaks. I have had her on my shortlist for the race since writing the Dark Horses in the winter. Sir Michael Stoute confirmed that Crystal Zvezda also runs, although Ryan Moore is likely to stay with 1,000 Guineas winner Legatissimo.
The Derby market remains a little wobbly, with Golden Horn now a top price of 7/4. Zawraq is 5/1, followed by Elm Park and Jack Hobbs at 7s. Epicuris is the best backed outsisder at 25/1 following his redirection from the French Derby.
I am still gathering together my thoughts on the Epsom Classics, but I am relieved that a couple of my long-priced outsiders for the Oaks should be lining up.
Bye for now.
Friday 22 May
Sometimes you see a maiden race that leaves you thinking it may be rather better than the norm, and for me this applied to the 1m 2f maiden run at Sandown on Thursday evening.
The race was won by the 95-rated Proposed, who had run better than his finishing position suggests in the Group 3 Chester Vase and run well in a valuable sales race at Newmarket in April. Richard Hannon had given the son of Invincible Spirit top-class entries, including the Derby. Runner-up was Star Storm, who had caught the eye on his only previous start at Nottingham and is well-regarded by James Fanshawe. The colt which most interested me was Dark Deed, a son of Dansili trained by Sir Michael Stoute. He ran well when third on his debut at Kempton in November and then again when second to Storm The Stars at Leicester in April. He was well supported to win here, but was left a fair way out of his ground by Ryan Moore and despite staying on well never looked like getting to the enterprisingly-ridden winner. There were other promising horses further behind in a race that could pay to follow.
Dark Deed will probably be rated on a mark in the high 80s or around 90 for this and he will be very interesting in a handicap, perhaps over a mile and a half, next time out. He could even be one to keep in mind for a top handicap at Royal Ascot, although he will need to get himself on a slightly higher mark to qualify. In time I expect Dark Deed to earn black type.
Looking ahead 16 colts were left in the Derby at the latest forfeit stage including 2,000 Guineas winner Gleneagles. Aidan O'Brien has also left in Hans Holbein, Kilimanjaro and Giovanni Canaletto but he has scratched Highland Reel, Sir Isaac Newton and Aloft. To my surprise John Gosden has taken Chistophermarlowe out of the race. Frankie Dettori looks like getting the mount on the supplemented favourite Golden Horn.
Paddy Power make Freddy Head's Solow 8/11 to beat Cirrus Des Aigles in the Prix D'Ispahan at Longchamp on Sunday, while the long-absent Eagle Top's name appears in the entries for the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown on Thursday.
Have a great weekend and bye for now
Thursday 14 May
The Derby picture didn't really get any clearer today when Golden Horn, who does not currently hold an entry for Epsom, beat stable-companion Jack Hobbs and Elm Park emphatically in the Dante Stakes.
The winner's owner Anthony Oppenheimer has always insisted that the colt's optimum trip would be a mile and a quarter, but William Buick said today that the winner was "strong" passing the line. It will cost £75,000 to supplement the colt for the Derby, and John Gosden says the decision will be down to the owner. Gosden said of the runner-up that he would be considering the King Edward VII Stakes, but given that his wife is a part-owner of the colt I think it would be very hard for them not to go to Epsom. Jack Hobbs was staying on well at the finish and as a son of Halling out of a daughter of Swain, and given his physical scope, he is entitled to improve for the step up in trip. Mind you it's possible that someone may step in to buy him. There were apparently calls to the trainer after his imperious display at Sandown, and there is a case for suggesting he would be the most attractive long-term prospect from the Dante field.
Elm Park ran a respectable race in third and his trainer Andrew Balding expects him to improve for the run. I am probably alone in harbouring a slight doubt about him staying a mile and a half.
Aidan O'Brien admitted in the aftermath of the poor runs of John F Kennedy and Ol' Man River that a few of his horses have been under the weather - something I suggested here a while back. I expect him to follow his usual practice and go in mob-handed on the day, with the likes of Hans Holbein, Kilimanjaro and possibly Giovanni Canaletto, who is rumoured to be the pick of his middle-distance prospects.
The most interesting horse in the field is Zawraq. Dermot Weld has still not said whether the colt will run in the Irish 2,000 Guineas or the Derby - or possibly in both. It must now be tempting to go to Epsom, although the trainer has expressed uncertainty over the colt's stamina.
We are faced with an absorbing situation and the next few days will be very interesting.
Bye for now
Sunday 10 May
The topsy-turvy Derby market took another hit this afternoon when Highland Reel ran a fairly lifeless race in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains at Longchamp. Aidan O'Brien's colt was a leading fancy of mine for both the English Guineas and the Derby, but after racing keenly for a couple of furlongs he could not improve his position behind the impressive winner Make Believe.
It looks as if Thursday's Dante Stakes at York will, once again, prove the strongest guide to Epsom. Aidan O'Brien has seven of the 15 entries for the Dante as I write, but they include Highland Reel. The buzz horse is Giovanni Canaletto, but he missed Lingfield on Saturday due to a temperature. My understanding is that he figures at the top, if not very near the top, of the Derby shortlist. John F Kennedy did not handle the soft ground on his return and with the going at York currently good to soft it will need to dry out for him to run. It was interesting to hear O'Brien put Ol' Man River forward for this race following his poor effort in the Guineas, especially as I have him down as a doubtful stayer.
The market is currently headed by Jack Hobbs, a giant of a horse who was raised 24lb after making a nonsense of his 85-rating in a handicap at Sandown. He may be joined by stable-companion Golden Horn, who would need to be supplemented for the Derby, with Elm Park setting the standard.
If forced to nominate a selection for the Derby at this stage I would probably find myself siding with Elm Park, who bypassed the Guineas due to the fast ground. He does not do anything very spectacularly, but he's very tough and given the uncertainty over his rivals he looks cast-iron for the frame. A victory in the Dante Stakes would see him shoot to the head of the market.
Bye for now
Tuesday 5 May
I have just returned from an informative but frustrating weekend at Newmarket. The feature of the meeting was the ground, which was as quick as I have known it.
Starting with the 2,000 Guineas, Gleneagles was becoming increasingly restless in the pre-paddock and had broken into quite a sweat by the time the horses were at the start. He was, though, a conclusive winner and the best colt in the race. Territories impressed me in the paddock and ran on well from off the pace. I liked his demeanour. Ivawood has scope, as indeed he did last year, and I was surprised he kept on so well. I thought beforehand that Bossy Guest would run well and he might have finished a length closer but for being switched just over a furlong out. Dutch Connection was travelling well on the rails but possibly didn’t stay the mile. Estidhkaar looked in good fettle but my selection Intilaaq was colty for a few minutes in the pre-paddock and looked dull in his coat. He needs more time. Ol’ Man River looked delicate and ran poorly, perhaps not handling the ground.
Looking ahead it’s interesting that Aidan O’Brien has mentioned the Dante Stakes for Ol’ Man River. Things look very undecided for the Ballydoyle horses at the moment. I don’t expect any of the other 2,000 Guineas runners to be aimed at the Derby.
I was not overly impressed with the fillies in the 1,000 Guineas.
Jellicle Ball had the most scope but she ran poorly, possibly due to being in season according to a statement from John Gosden this morning. She apparently didn’t care for the fast ground either. The winner Legatissimo is a medium-sized filly who is bred to thrive over middle distances. She is a half-sister to out-and-out stayer Another Cocktail out of a full sister to Ascot Gold Cup winner Fame And Glory. I would be surprised if she did not take her chance at Epsom. Lucida did well to go so close given she swerved sharply right leaving the stalls. She then had to switch right at halfway but looked the winner when she went into the lead. In the end she was outstayed by the winner. Malabar ran well without showing the same turn of foot that she had at two. She is bred for further and may need more time as she had not come in her coat.
Both Legatissimo and Malabar have sound credentials for Epsom.
Friday 1 May
I am leaving for Newmarket on Saturday morning to see the first two Classics of the season. I have just finished writing my Online Preview - well over 3,000 words - featuring an in-depth analysis of the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas and also highlighting the chances of a few horses in the support races.
I have revised the format of the Preview this season. Rather than analyse every race at the meeting, I have written about horses that interest me - either for their particular race or for the future. I feel this is much better than trying to work through races in which I have no strong view.
Following the success of the last two years, my previews of the two Guineas in this year's Dark Horses have proved well wide of the mark. There is still time to redress the balance, but I have never known a spring when so many leading prospects have - for one reason or another - fallen by the wayside.
I have updated my line already with my thoughts for tomorrow, and this will be updated again on Sunday morning with news for 1,000 Guineas day (0906 150 1555).
Looking at today, I thought that Threave ran a promising sort of race at Chepstow. You would not be expecting me to bring a horse of this type to your attention on a day when there is so much classy action at Punchestown, but to my eyes the mare was being ridden with an eye to the future.
Have a great weekend and bye for now.
Sunday 26 April
Saturday was all about AP McCoy, who was given a send-off the like of which I have never before witnessed on a British racetrack.
AP has implied on a number of occasions, since announcing his impending retirement at Newbury, that he doesn't really know what all the fuss is about, but I cannot think of any other sport where a champion has reigned over 20 consecutive years. In my view he is odds-on to receive a knighthood in the New Year's Honours as his accomplishments surpass anything that anybody has achieved in the sport before, either on the Flat or over jumps. Also there has never been whiff of scandal or suggestion of malpractice in his career, so I would not discourage anyone from going for a long-term return at the 6/4 (from 2/1 earlier in the week) that Ladbrokes offer about him being nominated for a knighthood on or before the 2016 New Year's honours.
For me the most interesting aspect of McCoy's retirement is the question of his future. I don't see him as a front-man for his former employer JP McManus, but at the same time I would be very surprised if he did not maintain their links in some shape or form. The role to which he would seem most well-suited could be as a scout, seeking out and trying out potential acquisitions for his boss. AP will want to be involved riding horses in some capacity or other, and this would enable him to exercise his horsemanship without the risks or tiring lifestyle associated with race-riding.
The next few weeks will not be easy for McCoy. He is a driven man, and the sooner he finds something through which to direct his energy the better. Perhaps, like rock star Alice Cooper, he may switch his focus to the golf course, but that would soon frustrate him if he failed to attain what he deemed to be a high level of achievement. It will be fascinating to see what comes along.
At Gowran Park today we saw a decent performance from Legatissimo in the extended nine furlong Listed race. The daughter of Danehill Dancer had run the useful Jack Naylor to three-quarters of a length at the Curragh in August and found the soft ground against her on her return at Leopardstown. Today's good to firm going suited her much better as did the step back up in trip. She is the sort of filly that could run into the frame in a Group 1 or 2 over a mile and a quarter or more.
Bye for now
Sunday 19 April
Such has been the limited impact of last week's Classic trials that the current market leaders are there by default.
Gleneagles is now a top price of 2/1 for the 2,000 Guineas - as low as 6/4 with Victor Chandler - despite having not run this season. Next at 9/1 is his stable-companion Highland Reel, with Greenham Stakes runner-up Estidhkaar at 12/1. Elm Park, who did not look like a Guineas winner in his public workout at Newbury, is next with Zawraq, an unlikely runner at Newmarket, at 12/1. Ivawood has four and a half lengths to find with Estidhkaar and is not bred to be suited to the step up to a mile, while Greenham winner Muhaarar is thought more likely to run in France.
The 1,000 Guineas is not much clearer. Found is shortest at 2/1 with Ladbrokes, which may be significant, with stable-companion Together Forever at 10/1. The market strength behind Jim Bolger's Lucida is interesting while Jellicle Ball should reverse Fred Darling form with Redstart stepped up to a mile. It was interesting to hear John Gosden say after yesterday's race that the filly would head to Newmarket and then be trained for Royal Ascot with, I suspect, the Ribblesdale the likely target. Malabar, who was unlucky behind Found in France last season, is probably the best value outsider at 20/1.
As for the Derby, if Highland Reel runs well at Newmarket he would have a leading chance.
I am not convinced that Ol' Man River is bred for the trip but Dermot Weld's Zawraq will be popular. Elm Park also looks desperate for middle distances while Giovanni Canaletto and Sir Isaac Newton need monitoring. Regarding the Oaks it wouldn't surprise me to see something come from left-field - Saturday's Navan maiden winner Fluff falls into that category. Words has been my long-term fancy for the race, but Aidan O'Brien has not had much to say about his fillies this spring. Jellicle Ball is bred for the trip on her dam's side, but John Gosden suggested Royal Ascot rather than Epsom for the daughter of Invincible Spirit. Malabar is bred to stay, so a good run at Newmarket could see her bang in contention.
Bye for now
Thursday 16 April
I cannot recall a season when the Classic hopefuls have made such a shaky start. John F Kennedy, long-time winter favourite for the Derby, was a very disappointing last of three on Sunday and Faydhan failed to shine in the Free Handicap. News came through today that Andre Fabre's High Celebrity will miss the 1,000 Guineas, while we already know that Sir Michael Stoute's Convey and Consort will not be ready in time for the 2,000 Guineas.
The horses that now head the market for the Classics are almost there by default, with Aidan O'Brien's team making their traditionally slow start to the season. I gather John Gosden reckons his team are a couple of weeks behind schedule, while Sir Michael Stoute's representatives to date are all being ridden as if they need the race.
The Newmarket Classics take place a fortnight this weekend and we have a couple more trials at Newbury this weekend, but the Classic scene looks very open and I would not be betting on anything for the moment.
Returning to the jumping action I was quietly impressed w